The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely heading towards a huge victory in Assam, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expected to return to power with an even bigger mandate, according to a Matrize opinion poll released on Monday.
NDA Far Ahead, Congress Struggling Behind
According to the poll, the Congress-led alliance is expected to win only 22 to 32 seats, falling far short of the NDA’s projected tally.
The Congress alliance, known as the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM), includes parties like the Indian National Congress, Assam Jatiya Parishad, Raijor Dal, CPI(M), APHLC, and CPI(ML).
Meanwhile, other parties may secure just 4 to 7 seats, indicating a largely bipolar contest.
Vote Share: NDA Maintains Clear Lead
The Matrize poll also highlights a strong vote share advantage for the NDA:
- NDA: 46% votes
- Congress+: 36% votes
- Others: 18% votes
This gap clearly reflects the NDA’s dominance across the state.
Region-Wise Breakdown: NDA Dominates Across Assam
The opinion poll suggests that the NDA is leading in almost every region:
- Barak Valley: NDA 10–12 | Congress+ 2–4 | Others 1–2
- North & Central Assam: NDA 27–29 | Congress+ 4–6 | Others 0–1
- Lower Assam: NDA 22–24 | Congress+ 7–9 | Others 2–5
- Bodoland: NDA 10–12 | Congress+ 0–2 | Others 2–4
- Upper Assam: NDA 21–23 | Congress+ 5–7
The numbers show a statewide wave in favour of the ruling alliance.
High-Stakes Battle: NDA vs Congress Alliance
The Assam Assembly elections will be held on April 9, with results scheduled for May 4.
The contest is shaping up to be a direct fight between the NDA and the Congress-led bloc, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma aiming for a third consecutive term for the BJP-led alliance.
Congress Aims for Comeback After Losing Stronghold
The Congress, once dominant in Assam under former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, is trying to regain lost ground.
The party ruled the state from 2001 to 2016, but lost power to the BJP in 2016 and has struggled to bounce back since then.
What Happened in Previous Elections?
2016 Elections
- BJP won 60 seats
- Allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) – 14 seats
- Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) – 12 seats
- Congress – 26 seats
- Sarbananda Sonowal became Chief Minister
2021 Elections
- BJP again won 60 seats
- AGP – 9 seats
- UPPL – 6 seats
- Congress improved to 29 seats
- All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) – 16 seats
- Himanta Biswa Sarma took over as Chief Minister
Final Take: Wave or Surprise Ahead?
If the Matrize opinion poll turns out to be accurate, Assam could witness a massive political wave in favour of the NDA, further strengthening the BJP’s hold in the Northeast.
However, with elections still ahead, the big question remains — will voters follow the trend, or deliver a surprise verdict?
