Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership is under renewed scrutiny following a significant setback for Canada’s ruling Liberal Party. The party lost a traditionally safe seat in the Montreal parliamentary constituency of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, with preliminary results released on Tuesday showing the separatist Bloc Quebecois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauvé, securing the win. According to Elections Canada, Sauvé garnered 28% of the vote, narrowly beating Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, who received 27.2%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate finished close behind with 26.1%. This election was held to replace a Liberal legislator who had recently stepped down.
The loss in Montreal, a city long considered a Liberal stronghold, is a significant blow to Trudeau’s party and comes at a time when his popularity is waning after nearly nine years in office. Although Trudeau has expressed his intention to lead the Liberals into the next federal election, which must be held by October 2025, this latest defeat has intensified calls for change within the party ranks. Some Liberal legislators have openly expressed their concerns, with Alexandra Mendes, a Liberal MP representing a Quebec constituency, stating that many of her constituents believe it is time for Trudeau to step down.
This result marks a stark contrast to the 2021 general election, where the Liberals won the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun seat with a comfortable 43% of the vote, well ahead of the Bloc Quebecois at 22% and the NDP at 19%. Trudeau had previously suggested that rising public anger over issues such as elevated prices and a housing crisis could impact voter sentiment.
Recent polls indicate that the Liberals are facing an uphill battle. A Leger poll conducted last week showed the right-of-centre Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, with 45% of public support—a level of national backing that is rarely seen in Canada. The Liberals trail significantly at 25%. Trudeau’s declining popularity is largely attributed to the public’s growing frustration over the cost of living and a housing crisis, partially driven by a surge in temporary residents, including foreign students and workers.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has capitalized on these issues, pledging to eliminate the federal carbon tax, which he argues is contributing to the rising cost of living. Additionally, Poilievre has promised to cap immigration limits until more housing can be constructed. In response to his growing influence, the Liberals have aimed to portray Poilievre as a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, as they seek to distinguish their platform ahead of the upcoming election.
Poilievre, known for his abrasive political style and frequent criticisms of opponents, has also proposed defunding the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). In April, he was ejected from the House of Commons after calling Prime Minister Trudeau “a wacko,” further intensifying the political rivalry between the two leaders.
The loss of the LaSalle-Emard-Verdun seat, along with mounting internal pressures and declining poll numbers, presents a significant challenge for Trudeau. As calls for a change in leadership grow louder, the Prime Minister faces an uphill battle to reinvigorate his party and restore voter confidence before the next federal election.
