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Will Raj Thackeray be able to revive the electoral fortunes of the MNS after the Gudi Padwa rally?

@vivekbhavsar

Mumbai: The multi-million dollar question that is agitating everyone’s mind is will Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) party chief Raj Thackeray be able to revive the sagging electoral fortunes of his party as he is all set to address his party’s traditional Gudi Padwa rally on Saturday at Shivaji Park, Dadar after a gap of two years.

Around one lac party workers and supporters are expected to attend the rally. If the party insider is to be believed, party Chief Raj Thackeray is likely to take Maha Vikas Aghadi as well as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) simultaneously during his Padwa speech. The question is whether the MNS which is on the political ventilator, will revive after this rally?

Given the present situation, it is very clear that the BJP will never support MNS even through the backdoor. Once, a staunch supporter of Narendra Modi and the Gujarat model, Raj Thackeray, during the 2019 general polls, had exposed the Gujarat model and BJP through his famous tagline ‘Lav re to Video’ (Play that video). After that poll campaign, the electoral distance between BJP and MNS got wider. 

Raj Thackeray and his MNS were hardly politically active after the 2019 state assembly polls. However, according to an MNS insider, it was the Corona pandemic and lockdown which resulted in not only MNS but also all the major political parties becoming politically inactive.

“MNS was the party whose party functionaries were busy distributing food packets to hundreds of standard migrant workers irrespective of their caste and region. We had helped several Uttar Bharatiya labourers who were on their way to their home state, apart from Marathi families who were unable to afford their daily meals,” said the MNS office bearer on condition of anonymity.

MNS thinks their social work during the pandemic will be beneficial for the party in civic polls. However, MNS is planning to focus on only 25 wards in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election. “Our party chief may announce 100 candidates for the Mumbai civic polls, but our focus will be on 25 wards which we have shortlisted and termed as A + (plus) wards,” said the MNS source.

According to another source from the MNS, going by the poll related talks and internal party meetings, MNS will win eight seats surely, but the numbers would be double if everything will happen as per MNS strategy. He denied disclosing the strategy and said that Raj Thackeray is likely to reveal the party’s strategy at the Padva rally.

The MNS has hopes that from Mulund, Dadar, Mahim, Ghatkopar East and Ghatkopar West, with few seats in Western suburbs the party will be able to notch up an impressive poll tally in the ensuing BMC polls. Vasant Phadke and Irfan Shaikh are handling the back office of election-related works and collecting data about which seats might be favourable to MNS in upcoming civic polls.

However, according to Devendra Fadnavis, Leader of Opposition, until and unless Raj will not sharply attack Shiv Sena President and Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, Marathi voters will not shift towards MNS. “Raj had targeted Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray several times, but not very sharply. His language and political strategy were never much harsher against the Sena and Uddhav. At the last moment, Raj dilutes his aggressiveness and hence the Marathi voters did not choose MNS as a strong alternative to the Shiv Sena,” said Fadnavis.

The former Chief Minister Fadnavis agreed that there is a vote bank of MNS in Mumbai, and on that basis, the party could win at least 8 to 10 seats in civic polls. 

The MNS source claimed that Raj has three major issues against the BJP and MVA government. He will not show or present a pen drive against these parties, but he is likely to expose them in the Padwa rally.  However, he did not reveal the issues.

Meanwhile, the meetings of the various wings of MNS including Maharashtra Navnirman Kamgar Sena, MN Vidyarthi Sena, MN Paryavaran Sena, MN Cable Sena, MN Mathadi Sena, MN Vyapari Sena, MN Suraksharakshak Sena, MN Angrakshak Sena, MN Telecom Sena, MN BEST Kamgar Sena, MN Mahapalika Karmachari Sena and MN Chitrapat Sena held several meetings for the success of the rally. Every wing has been given a target to bring at least 10 buses loaded with party workers.

“We held several meetings for the preparations of the rally. But, we do not need to pay out party workers to attend the rally. There is a huge fan following of Raj Thackeray across the state. So, the crowd will be original,” claimed a party functionary.

Amit Thackeray – the star attraction of the rally

After Amit Raj Thackeray’s active involvement in the day to day party affairs, party workers are happy. Amit attends the party office every day from early morning to late evening. If people could not meet Raj, they have the option to meet Amit, as Amit attends to every person politely. That is why, at any time of the day, the MNS office is seen as full of crowded people.

Is this the rebirth of MNS?

After Corona’s pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, this is the first public rally of MNS. After a string of electoral losses in recent polls, MNS went on the back foot. The surgery of his son Amit was a shock to Raj and being a father, Amit’s health was his most priority. After these shocks, it looks like Raj has overcome all those bad days. Amit has visited almost all districts during the last assembly polls. Now, he is planning to criss-cross the state from this month, meet old party functionaries, convince them to join the active politics once again, give support to Raj and MNS and strengthen the party.

According to a party insider, MNS has hopes of the revival of the party. “It may be possible, that during Mumbai and Pune civic polls, which are on top priority, a party may not show excellent performance, but till the Lok Sabha and state Assembly polls scheduled in 2024, the MNS will create a solid base at the ground level,” said the party source. He reiterated that instead of focusing on the whole state, MNS may choose Mumbai, Pune and Nashik in the first phase.

Vivek Bhavsar
Vivek Bhavsar
Vivek Bhavsar is the Editor-In-Chief. He is a senior journalist having experience of more than 30 years in political and investigative journalism. He is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheNews21. He has worked with leading English mainline dailies, including The Asian Age, Free Press Journal, and also carries the experience of strides in leading regional newspapers like Lokmat and Saamana.

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