If only the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena are able to take care of the 100 plus assembly seats which they are in danger of losing given the negative difference between the 2009 and 2014 assembly election victory margins, they in the worst case scenarios should be expected to scrape through. Barring a few major upsets, the opposition Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) could do well to retain hold on whatever seats they can hold on to.
But, going by the numbers it does appear that it will be difficult for the BJP to live up to its “Aab Ki Baar 220 Ke Paar” call (this time beyond 220 seats mark). Complacency and getting high on slogans like “India Shinning” have been the undoing of the BJP.
It all depends on how well the Sena performs in these elections and how well they are able to quell rebellions within their own ranks. If the Sena comes down below the 50 seats mark, from the 63 seats it won in the 2014 elections, then it will be an uphill task for the BJP to retain power. It could be a repeat of the 2009 verdict, where the BJP performed better, but the Sena failed to keep pace and they missed the bus. Not to forget that both the BJP and Sena run the risk of the anti-incumbency factor.
Out of the 122 assembly seats the BJP won in the 2014 assembly elections, the party will have to really strive hard to retain 83 seat’s where the victory margin has come down or is in the negative. Out of the 122 seats, 58 assembly seats are such which can be treated as safe seats. Besides this, there are at least 35 seats out of the 122 seats, where the BJP can expect a hard fought contest.
The only worry for the BJP is how well does the Shiv Sena performs. By fielding Aditya Thackeray, has the Sena thrown its last dice at the table? Because out of the 63 seats it won in the 2014 elections, the Sena will have to sweat it out to retain at least 40 seats. Only 22 of the 63 seats can be considered as safe seats. The Sena can expect a tough contest in 25 of the 63 seats.
It will take a miracle for both the opposition Congress and NCP together to stage a spectacular come back to power. Out of the 42 seats the Congress won in 2014, the party is in serious danger of losing 33 seats. Only 9 seats can be considered as safe seats by the Congress. There are at least 20 seats out of the 42 seats where it can face a stiff contest.
Looking at the poll prospects of the NCP, it is little wonder then that there are so many desertions for the party to the Sena-BJP fold. Of the 41 seats the NCP won in 2014 elections, the party is in danger of losing at least 34 seats because of reduced margins or negative difference in victory margins. At best 13 seats can be considered as safe seats by the NCP, the party can expect a tough fight in 16 seats it held in 2014.
In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP had won 122 seats, the Sena 63, Congress 42, NCP 41, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 1, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) 3, Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWP-I) 2, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) 2, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) 1, Samajwadi Party 1 and Independents 7.
It will be an uphill task for the rest, that is the MNS, BVA, PWP-I, MIM, RSP, SP and two Independent’s to retain whatever seats they had won in the 2014 elections. The task for the MNS especially an uphill one as its president Raj Thackeray’s anti-BJP rant failed to impress the voters in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. From an high of 13 seats in 2009, the MNS fall in popularity to just 1 seat in 2014 speaks volumes of the uphill task before the MNS chief.
In the worst case scenarios if the BJP wins 103 seats and the Sena manages to win at least 58 seats, the two together get 161 seats, well over the half way mark of 147 seats. If the BJP gets 112 seats and the Sena manages to get 58 seats, they together can still get 170 seats. Even if the BJP gets 138 seats and the Sena still manages to hang on to and win 58 seats, they together can get 196 seats. In the best case scenarios even if the BJP can win 147 seats and the Sena wins 64 seats, their combined tally comes to 211 seats, which is short by the BJPs call of “Aab Ki Baar 220 Ke Paar”.
The Congress and the NCP could do well to win 28 to 30 seats respectively, which most of the pre-poll opinion poll surveys have been predicting. But as stated earlier, complacency, over-confidence and getting high on catchy slogans like “Aab Ki Baar 220 Ke Paar” or “India Shinning” have often proved to be the Achilles Heels for the BJP. It knows pretty well that the recent floods in Sangli, Kolhapur, the floods in Pune, rebellions within its own ranks or the on-going anti-Metro 3 car depot agitation can pour cold water on its big dreams of retaining power.
