The heavy rains that lashed Pune district earlier this week and the recent floods in Sangli and Kolhapur could upset the calculations of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Both the calamities could not have come at worst time for the BJP as it heads for the crucial electoral battle for the 58 assembly seats in Western Maharashtra. But it is not just the BJP alone that faces a daunting task, even the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Shiv Sena and even the Congress face a challenge in retaining the seats they had won in the 2014 assembly elections.
The significant erosion of victory margins between 2009 and 2014 elections shows that it will be an uphill task for Shivendra Raje Bhosale (Satara, now in BJP), ex-BJP minister Dilip Kamble (Pune Cantonment), Sena minister Vijay Shivtare (Purandar), Pranati Shinde (Solapur City Central, Congress), former Congress chief minister Prithviraj Chavan (Karad South) and Palus Kadegaon seat held by the Congress in the 2014 polls.
There are worrying signs also for NCPs Ajit Pawar. His 2009 victory margin of 1,02,797 votes was reduced to 89,791 votes, a loss of 13,006 votes. Now coming under the Enforcement Directorate (ED) lens in the multi-crore Maharashtra State Cooperative Bank (apex bank), the problems could multiply that much. Though the prospects of a huge defeat look remote for Ajit Pawar, electoral upsets cannot be ruled out if the opposition fields a strong rival candidate.
In the 2014 assembly elections, out of the 58 seats in Western Maharashtra, the BJP had won the maximum number of 19 seats, bulk of them – 11 seats it won in Pune district alone. The NCP won 16 seats, Sena 12, Congress 7, MNS 1, RSPS 1, PWP 1 and Independent’s 1. Out of the 16 seats won by the NCP, bulk of them 5 seats were won from Satara district. While, out of the 7 seats won by the Congress, 3 seats were won by it from Solapur district. The Sena which had won 12 seats in all, bulk of its 6 seats come from Kolhapur district alone.
The NCP which had won 20 seats in the 2009 polls, won most of them from Pune, Solapur and Satara district’s. The Congress which won 11 seats in the region, won 4 seats from Pune district. The BJP which had won 9 seats then, did so from Pune and Sangli district’s. The Sena which had won 6 seats in 2009 polls, won most of them from Pune and Kolhapur district’s. While the 8 Independent’s who had won their respective seats, did so from Pune district only.
While comparing the 2009 and 2014 assembly elections, the shift in the popular vote from the NCP-Congress to the BJP-Sena is quite clearly visible in the 2014 polls. We at TheNews21.com have just taken into account the comparison and difference between the 2009 and 2014 assembly election victory margins. In an assembly election, any victory margin less than 10,000 votes can easily bridged. Equally, a victory margin in excess of 10,000 votes is difficult to cover up.
Out of the 19 seats that the BJP won in 2014 elections, the BJP could lose 5 seats – Vadgaonsheri, Pune Cantonment (SC), Satara, Ichalkaranji and Shirala in the October 21, 2019 assembly elections. Six of its seats – Maval, Chinchwad, Kothrud, Khadakwasla, Parvati, Hadapsar, Kasba Peth, Solapur City North, Miraj (SC), Sangli and Jath appear to be safe seats. While , it will have to sweat it out to retain 3 of its seats – Shirur, Shivajinagar and Solapur South. The Satara seat is up for grabs and can be won either by the BJP or the NCP depending upon the mood swing in the electorate.
Based on the comparison of the 2009 and 2014 victory margins, the NCP stands to lose a maximum of eight seats out of the 16 seats it won in the 2014 polls – Madha, Barshi, Mohol (SC), Malshiras (SC), Phaltan (SC), Karad North, Kagal, Tasgaon Kavthe-Mahankal. Although the NCP is unlikely to lose the Baramati seat, it will have to sweat it out to retain the Satara seat. At least seven seats – Ambegaon, Baramati, Indapur, Wai, Koregaon, Chandgad and Islampur appear to be safe seats for the NCP.
Out of the 12 seats it won in the 2014 polls, the Sena could stand to lose 6 seats – Purandar, Pimpri (SC), Karmala, Radhanagri, Karveer and Shahuwadi. Besides this – Khed Alandi, Patan, Kolhapur North, Hatkanagale (SC) and Khanapur appear to be safe seats for the Sena. The Sena might well have to sweat it out to retain the Shirol assembly seat.
The Congress which once held political sway over the region could well lose 4 out of the 7 seats it had won in 2014. The Congress is in danger of losing these 5 seats – Bhor, Solapur City Central, Pandharpur and Karad South. Although, the Akkalkot seat may be considered as a safe seat, the Congress will have to work hard to retain its Palus Kadegaon, Man and Karad South seat’s.
With veteran PWP sitting MLA from Sangola, Ganpatrao Deshmukh announcing his retirement from electoral politics, his seat is up for grabs literally. Although the Junnar seat was a safe seat for the MNS, its sitting MLA Sharad Sonawane walked over and joined the Sena.
The others who stare at the prospects of losing their assembly seats include – Hasan Mushrif (NCP – Kagal), Suresh Havlankar (Ichalkaranji) and Shivajirao Naik (Shirala), both BJP, Gautam Chabukswar (Pimpri – SC / Sena), Bharat Bhalke (Pandharpur) and Sangram Thopte (Bhor), both Congress.
