X: @prashanthamine
Mumbai: Last week it was a tale of two contrasts in Maharashtra politics. Both the Thackeray scions – Aditya and Amit seem to be poles apart in their perceptions of the political realities facing the political outfits headed by their respective fathers. Aditya Thackeray appears to be still rooted in the alleged conspiracy theories of hackable Electronic Voting Machine (EVM), fudged Voters Lists and rigged elections. While his cousin, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) heir apparent, Amit Thackeray seems to have realised that it is time to dump the poll conspiracy theories and look within and fix systemic problems within.
Amit Thackeray appears to have taken a divergent view from his father, MNS chief Raj Thackeray on the oft repeated poll conspiracy theories and wants to focus his attention on fixing organisational short-comings. On the other hand Aditya Thackeray called on Congress party scion Rahul Gandhi to mull over the alleged irregularities in the voters lists in Maharashtra.
Three Lok Sabha and Assembly elections have gone by ever since these poll rigging conspiracy theories were first made in 2014. Several petitions were filed in the Supreme Court of India (SCI) which after a while and careful consideration now has begun to junk them.
Far from acknowledging electoral defeats in true democratic traditions, analysing the reasons for such an election result and rectifying the mistakes, the vanquished appear to be still playing the victim card. Repeated use of the same grouse makes it lose its sheen and value with diminishing returns.
There is no thought being given to the organisational weaknesses, nepotism, coterie politics and over-confidence that have become the reality of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). After suffering a stunning setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have analysed the results, made course corrections, mended its broken ties with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and months later turned things around in securing spectacular victory in the ensuing Assembly elections.
Instead of trying to analyse as to how the BJP managed to redeem the situation in just a short time, the MVA appears to have adopted the ostrich-like posture, thinking that the storm will pass away soon.
With the big ticket elections done and dusted, most in the MVA stare at the prospect of wandering powerless in the political wilderness for the next five years. The BJP led Mahayuti alliance has secured more than a brute majority in the 2024 Assembly elections and in no way appears to be shaky at the moment. The mandate for the Mahayuti is such that it has left not much of a scope for Nationalist Congress Party (NCPSP) faction led by Sharad Pawar to conjure up yet another MVA government like he did in 2019.
The last of the real acid test for both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition MVA is going to be the elections to the 10 major municipal corporation’s in the state. Much of that depends on as and when the SCI clears the reservation case. These elections will in a way give a clear picture as to which of the political parties really has a strong grassroots presence.
It is the long five year waiting period that is most probably haunting most of the leaders from the Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (SSUBT) faction. It is one of the reasons why leaders like former MLA Rajan Salvi quit the faction and joined ranks with the Shiv Sena faction led by Deputy Chief Minister, Eknath Shinde.
The SSUBT faction appears to be imploding from within its Konkan region stronghold. Senior leaders former Lok Sabha MP Vinayak Raut and MLA Bhaskar Jadhav are busy trading charges even as party cadres are making a beeline to the Eknath Shinde faction. The steady erosion of the grassroots support base does not augur well for the SSUBT faction just ahead of the municipal elections.
The political winds blowing in the Konkan region have had an impact on the way the expatriates in Mumbai and surrounding regions tend to vote in any election. The exodus from the SSUBT faction could be an indication of what to expect from the Operation Tiger launched by DCM Eknath Shinde.
It is here that Amit Thackeray not only differs from his cousin Aditya Thackeray, but also from his father, MNS chief Raj Thackeray. Amit Thackeray at least has recognised that there is a pressing need to fix organisational issues within the MNS rather than keep on harping on the EVM bogey. Barring its 2009 flash in the pan-like victory in the Assembly elections then, the electoral fortunes of the MNS have taken a nose-dive thanks to its constant ideological flip-flops.
The Congress on the other hand has handpicked its former MLA (2014) Harshawardhan Sapkal to head its Maharashtra unit. Nothing of that seems to be happening in the SSUBT or the NCPSP faction. It remains to be seen as to whether the two MVA alliance partners do some serious introspection and stem the rot and stop the exodus before the civic polls, or face the existential crisis in the near future.
