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The country can expect an above-normal monsoon this year, with rainfall predicted to be around 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) first forecast for the 2024 monsoon season.
Addressing the media on Monday, IMD Director General Mritunjay Mohapatra said, “More than normal rainfall is expected this year. We are forecasting 106 percent rainfall between June 5 and September 30, which falls under the above-normal category.”
Mohapatra emphasized that the current situation is better than normal, and the monsoon is likely to arrive by June 8. He added that the El Niño conditions, which can influence monsoon patterns, are currently moderate and are expected to diminish once the monsoon begins.
The IMD’s long-range forecast is eagerly awaited by farmers across the country, as it provides crucial information for planning agricultural activities. Mohapatra acknowledged the significance of the forecast, stating, “Every year, farmers wait for the IMD’s prediction. All the farmers are waiting for the meteorological department’s forecast.”
While this is the IMD’s first long-term forecast for the 2024 monsoon season, a revised and more detailed forecast is expected by the end of May. Mohapatra cautioned that the picture regarding monsoon rainfall patterns would become clearer after the second forecast.
India’s economy and agricultural sector heavily rely on the monsoon rains, which account for around 70 percent of the country’s annual rainfall. A normal monsoon is vital for the country’s food security and overall economic growth.
The IMD’s prediction of an above-normal monsoon has brought relief to farmers and policymakers alike, as it could boost agricultural production and mitigate the impact of climate change-induced weather patterns.
However, experts warn that the distribution of rainfall across different regions will be a crucial factor in determining the overall impact on agricultural output and water resources.
As the nation eagerly awaits the arrival of the monsoon, the IMD’s forecast provides a positive outlook, but the actual rainfall patterns will determine the ultimate outcome for the country’s agricultural and economic prospects.
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