Market Outlook: Nifty may drop back to 11,300 if the index fails to sustain above 11,500

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Mumbai: The markets have begun the week on a positive note, with the BSE Sensex scaling back above 39,000-mark and the NSE Nifty above the 11,500-mark. The BSE benchmark index, the Sensex, opened with a positive gap of 260 points at 38,957, and soon rallied past the 39,000-mark to a high of 39,264. The BSE index, thereafter, pared some gains but eventually ended 277 points stronger at 38,974.

Among the Sensex 30 stocks, TCS soared over 7 per cent and Tata Steel surged nearly 5 per cent. Sun Pharma, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were up 1-3 per cent each. On the other hand, Bajaj Finserv slipped nearly 3 per cent. Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Auto, PowerGrid Corporation and ITC were down 1-2 per cent each.

Today, the Sensex gave a fresh ‘Buy’ signal on the monthly and quarterly Fibonacci chart. As per the monthly Fibonacci chart, the BSE index may now test 39,500 and 39,840 on the upside. The bias for the month and the quarter is likely to remain positive as long as the BSE index sustains above 38,070-odd level. As per the quarterly Fibonacci chart, the BSE index can potentially rally towards 40,000-40,600-41,200 in this quarter.

The BSE Sensex, however, has not given any clear indication on the weekly Fibonacci chart. As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Tuesday, in case of an up move the BSE index may face resistance around 39,140-39,200-39,250. On the other hand, in case of a decline the Sensex is likely to seek support around 38,800-38,750-38,700.

Also Read: Weekly Outlook: Volatility likely to continue; expect a two-way movement

The NSE Nifty scaled a high of 11,578 and then ended with a gain of 0.8 per cent at 11,503. The NSE index is currently testing resistance around its Super Trend Line, consistently sustainability above 11,500 can trigger a rally towards 11,800 for the NSE index. However, failure to sustain above 11,500 can force the index back towards 11,300 where the two key moving averages (20-DMA & 50-DMA) have converged. 

Among the key momentum oscillators on the daily chart, the Slow Stochastic and the DI (Directional Index) are clearly in favour of the bulls. However, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is inconclusive and the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in the neutral zone.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal and for information purpose only, it does not advocate any buy or sell /recommendation. 

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