As an urgent and a real debate stirs across the corridors of the South Block, about whether or not to engage with the Taliban – regional experts, Intel analysts, and former diplomats advocate that New Delhi needs to advance its own legitimate security and economic interest in Afghan, without losing its innate sense of realism and pragmatism
New Delhi: Brimming with a strategic intent to strike the balance between Islamabad’s influence over Kabul, India’s move to support President Ashraf Ghani underlines the cornerstone of its Afghanistan policy. Staying true to its colors and continuing on its role as a strategic ally to the Afghans – New Delhi has refused to make contact with the Taliban to maintain ties with the Afghan government.
However, even with this policy stance, concerns continue to rise over an increasing role of Pakistani intelligence in Kabul’s polit-bureau, bolstering of the Haqqani network, and the ever-developing ties of the Taliban with al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
As an urgent and a real debate stirs across the corridors of the South Block, about whether or not to engage with the Afghan Taliban – experts and diplomats speaking at a webinar ‘The Neo-Taliban’ organized by the Central University of Jammu on June 9, advocated New Delhi to advance its own legitimate security and economic interest in Afghan, without losing its innate sense of realism and pragmatism.
In his opening address former special secretary, cabinet secretariat Rana Banerji presented on the Taliban factions, their history and the future while arguing that their leadership is fragile and most likely to fragment.
“This has been the history of the Taliban. Most of the Taliban cadres are recruited in the refugee camps in Pakistan. It’s highly likely that if the intra-Afghan peace process fails to achieve any agreement, then there will be a civil war between the Taliban and the government forces,” Banerji emphasized.
He added that New Delhi must be prepared to engage all the stakeholders of peace in Afghanistan without hurting the interests of their traditional friends.
Supporting the sentiments expressed by Banerji, Doctoral Research Scholar from the National University of Singapore, Chayanika Saxena asserted that New Delhi should use these talks and de-hyphenate the Taliban from their mentor – Pakistan.
“India can afford to take a step back in its approach towards Afghanistan and engage in direct talks with the Taliban. These talks must be specifically used to take Islamabad out of the equation. A fresh start is imperative and engaging in talks does not mean recognizing them,” Saxena opined.
The young scholar canvassed the new image of the Taliban, which now seeks to ‘internationalize’ itself from the past image of quintessentially remaining as an Afghan phenomenon. She claimed that the new generation of the Taliban desire to be seen by seeking international legitimacy.
“They are learning from other insurgent groups in the world. There is a shift in their recruitment pattern, and more importantly, they have started bureaucratizing their organization. The new Taliban leaders and representatives are showing political maturity and robustness. They intend to establish an Emirate but replacing the government part was valid until there was a shadow government. They may topple the current dispensation if the push comes to shove,” Saxena said.
Picking up after Saxena, India’s former envoy to Kabul, Gautam Mukhopadhyay pointed out that New Delhi has a definite interest in the intra-Afghan deal and called upon the leadership to initiate an Afghan outreach.
“We should not legitimize the Taliban, but must look at the end-state of affairs and then start the talks. However, we must remain cautious in our way forward with them. Let them prove themselves, show the change in their attitude and accept the Afghan government as a legitimate partner in the deal and the process of sharing power,” Mukhopadhyay said while adding that the Taliban by their DNA cannot ever share power, thus continuing to remain an Islamic emirate.
Mukhopadhyay voiced that India’s concerns about Pakistan-sponsored terrorism continue to be at large in the recent international agreement that provides frail guarantees. He mapped Pakistan’s vested interest in Afghanistan in five points – an unstable Kabul is a prized land for Islamabad, denying and reducing Indian diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, formalizing the Durand Line Treaty, utilizing Afghan lands for promoting terrorism in Kashmir and restricting the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement.
The veteran diplomat while citing a few examples showing the expansion of the Taliban activities into hitherto non-militant areas under Deobandi influence claimed that New Delhi could leverage this aspect in stemming this tide and reduce the terror-oriented ascendancy of Islamabad.
Meanwhile, in his short talk at the webinar Anand Arni, the former Special Secretary in the Research & Analysis Wing indicated that too many players have now got involved in the Afghan ‘talk game’.
“There will be no solace for India in these talks. Talking directly to the Taliban is different, and it (talks) should be staged only once we know what we want. The Haqqani network exists and functions as a separate entity. They (the Taliban) want to be recognized as a political force, thus even India should have a wish list of its own – security and other interests,” Arni said.
