X: @prashanthamine
Mumbai: Fifteen years of consistently declining electoral fortunes has set off alarm bells ringing not just in Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), but also in the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). It is little wonder then that there is a clamor growing within the MNS for a merger with the Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena UBT faction (SS-UBT).
A comparative analysis of assembly election results from 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024 assembly elections reveal a grim picture not just for the MNS, but also for the rest of the MVA.
On the other hand, the electoral drubbing at the just concluded assembly elections in Maharashtra, there is a growing chorus amongst the SS-UBT leadership to go solo in the ensuing civic elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in February 2025.
There has been a consistent steep decline in electoral fortunes for the MNS ever since it first contested the assembly elections in 2009, registering a spectacular, impressive electoral dividend by bagging 13 seats and knocking the winds out of the sails of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena led alliance.
From a high of 13 seats in 2009, to Zero (0) seats in 2024 assembly elections, the electoral fall has never been so steep for anyone. In between, the MNS could barely manage to win just 1 seat in 2014 and 2019 assembly elections, before being completely routed in 2024 elections.
The steep fall can be gauged from the fact that in 2009 the MNS had posted an impressive vote percentage of 16.26%, while polling 73,69,030 votes, winning 13 seats, while contesting 160 seats. As against this, in 2024 that vote percentage has seen a drastic fall to just 1.55% with the vote share coming down to just 10,02,557 votes, winning Zero (0) seats, while contesting 125 seats.
As for the rest of the MVA, going solo may look like a viable option right now. But barring the ruling BJP, the electoral graph for the MVA alliance partners has seen a consistent decline over the last 15 years. For some, like the BJP stitching formidable alliances has paid rich electoral dividends, but hasn’t worked well for some MVA partners.
From a high of 82 seats in 2009, polling 95,21,703 votes, a voting percentage of 21.01% and contesting 170 seats, the electoral fortunes for the Congress have seen a steady decline to bagging just 16 seats in 2024 out of 101 seats it contested, polling 80,20,921 votes and a voting percentage of 14.02%. A steady erosion of public support spells doom for the Congress.
For an undivided Shiv Sena it was more or less a steady and smooth sailing until the 2019 assembly polls. The only blip in electoral fortunes taking a hit was in 2009, when the MNS dented the prospects of the BJP-Sena alliance of coming to power in Maharashtra. In 2009 polls, the Shiv Sena won 44 seats out of the 143 seats it contested, polling 25,85,597 votes at a voting percentage of 5.71%.
In 2014, the undivided Shiv Sena saw an all-time electoral high after it snapped its 25-year-old electoral alliance with the BJP. The Sena bagged 63 seats out of the 282 seats it contested, polling 1,02,35,970 votes by far its highest vote share at an impressive 19.35%.
It did not fare badly either after re-stitching its alliance with the BJP in 2019. The undivided Sena won 56 seats out of the 126 seats it contested, polling 90,49,789 votes at a voting percentage of 16.41%.
The June 2022 split in the Shiv Sena by Eknath Shinde severely dented its electoral prospects as its vote bank got split into Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde (SS-ES) faction and SS-UBT faction.
In the just concluded assembly elections, the SS-UBT which aligned with the Congress led MVA contested 95 seats, winning just 20 out of them, polling 64,33,013 votes at a voting percentage of just 9.96%. The June 2022 split has resulted in shaving off nearly 10% of its 2014 vote percentage and vote share in November 2024.
As against this, the SS-ES faction which was formed barely two years ago had contested 81 seats in alliance with the BJP-NCP-AP led Mahayuti. The SS-ES won 57 seats, polling 79,96,930 votes with a voting percentage of 12.38%.
Another key partner in the MVA that was badly affected by the July 2023 split in its ranks was the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Between 2009 to 2019 assembly polls, the undivided NCP led by its patriarch Sharad Pawar managed to maintain an average of 16% vote percentage, with or without alliance partner the Congress.
In 2009, the NCP while in alliance with the Congress, had contested 113 seats, winning 62 seats, polling 74,20,212 votes at a voting percentage of 16.37%. In 2014 polls after snapping its ties with the Congress, the NCP contested 278 seats, winning 41 seats, while polling 91,22,285 votes at an improved voting percentage of 17.24%.
However, electoral fortunes seem to have changed for the NCP after the July 2023 split leading to the birth of the NCP-SP and NCP-AP factions, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar respectively.
The NCP-SP faction had contested 86 seats in alliance with MVA partners, winning just 10 seats. It did manage to poll 72,87,797 votes with a vote percentage of 11.28%.
As compared to that, the Ajit Pawar led NCP-AP faction which did contest fewer seats and polled even lesser votes and voting percentage as compared to the NCP-SP faction, still managed to win more seats than the NCP-SP faction. The NCP-AP faction in alliance with the Mahayuti contested 59 seats, but won 41 seats, polled 58,16,566 votes with a voting percentage of just 9.01%.
In a contrasting comparison, the SS-UBT faction with a voting percentage of 9.96% managed to win just 20 seats, whereas, the NCP-AP faction with a voting percentage of 9.01% managed to win 41 seats.
The BJP on the other hand has been consistently improving on its electoral performance since 2009 polls. Even when the MNS was on an electoral high in the 2009 polls, denting the Sena-BJP alliance, the latter still managed to retain some of its electoral battleground.
It is the first non-Congress party that has been able to breach the 100-seat ceiling in assembly elections in 34 years. Last time the Congress crossed the 100-seat threshold was in the 1990 assembly elections when it had won 141 seats.
In the 2009 assembly elections, the BJP had contested 119 seats and had managed to win 46 seats, two more than the Sena. The BJP had polled 63,52,147 votes at a vote percentage of 14.02%, compared to 5.71% of the Shiv Sena which had won 44 seats.
When it snapped its alliance with the Sena in the 2014 elections, the BJP had contested 260 seats and won 122 seats, with a voting percentage of 27.81% which is by far its best vote percentage. In 2019 polls, when it did re-align with the Sena and contested 164 seats, it did win 105 seats at a voting percentage of 25.75%, polling 1,41,99,375 votes.
When it re-aligned with the Sena in the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP which contested 164 seats, managed to win 105 seats, with a voting percentage of 25.75% and polling 1,41,99,375 votes.
For the 2024 assembly elections, the BJP re-stitched and broadened its Mahayuti alliance by aligning with the SS-ES and NCP-AP as its new found alliance partners. It did face some flak for having aligned itself with the NCP-AP faction led by Ajit Pawar.
In the just concluded 2024 polls, the BJP had contested 149 seats, winning its current all time high of 132 seats, polling 1,72,93,650 votes, with a voting percentage of 26.77%. This has been by far the best electoral performance since it was formed 44 years ago in Mahim, Mumbai, on April 6, 1980.
Here, down below we give you a complete snapshot of the electoral performance of all the current seven political parties – the BJP, Congress, MNS, SS-ES, SS-UBT, NCP-SP and NCP-AP over a period of 15 years between 2009 to 2024.
Source: Election Commission of India (ECI).
Timeframe: 2009 to 2024 – 15 years.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP):
2009:
Seats Contested – 119
Seats Won – 46
Votes Polled – 63,52,147
Vote Percentage – 14.02%
BJP-SS Alliance
2014:
Seats Contested – 260
Seats Won – 122
Votes Polled – 1,47,09,276
Vote Percentage – 27.81%
No BJP-SHS Alliance
2019:
Seats Contested – 164
Seats Won – 105
Votes Polled – 1,41,99,375
Vote Percentage – 25.75%
BJP-SHS Alliance
2024:
Seats Contested – 149
Seats Won – 132
Votes Polled – 1,72,93,650
Vote Percentage – 26.77%
BJP-SHS-ES-NCP-AP – Mahayuti Alliance (NDA)
Indian National Congress (INC – Congress):
2009:
Seats Contested – 170
Seats Won – 82
Votes Polled – 95,21,703
Vote Percentage – 21.01%
Congress-NCP Alliance
2014:
Seats Contested – 287
Seats Won – 42
Votes Polled – 94,96,095
Vote Percentage – 17.95%
No Congress-NCP Alliance
2019:
Seats Contested – 147
Seats Won – 44
Votes Polled – 87,52,199
Vote Percentage – 15.87%
Congress-NCP Alliance
2024:
Seats Contested – 101
Seats Won – 16
Votes Polled – 80,20,921
Vote Percentage – 14.02%
Congress-NCP-SP-SHS-UBT MVA Alliance
Shiv Sena (Undivided):
2009:
Seats Contested – 143
Seats Won – 44
Votes Polled – 25,85,597
Vote Percentage – 5.71%
BJP-SHS Alliance
2014:
Seats Contested – 282
Seats Won – 63
Votes Polled – 1,02,35,970
Vote Percentage – 19.35%
No BJP-SHS Alliance
2019:
Seats Contested – 126
Seats Won – 56
Votes Polled – 90,49,789
Vote Percentage – 16.41%
BJP-SHS Alliance
2024:
Shiv Sena Split – Eknath Shinde faction (SHS-ES) & Uddhav Thackeray faction (SHS-UBT)
SHS-UBT:
Seats Contested – 95
Seats Won – 20
Votes Polled – 64,33,013
Vote Percentage – 9.96%
SHS-UBT-Congress-NCP-SP – MVA Alliance
SHS-ES:
Seats Contested – 81
Seats Won – 57
Votes Polled – 79,96,930
Vote Percentage – 12.38%
SHS-ES-BJP-NCP-AP – Mahayuti Alliance (NDA).
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS):
2009:
Seats Contested – 160
Seats Won – 13
Votes Polled – 73,69,030
Vote Percentage – 16.26%
2014:
Seats Contested – 219
Seats Won – 1
Votes Polled – 16,65,033
Vote Percentage – 3.15%
2019:
Seats Contested – 101
Seats Won – 1
Votes Polled – 12,42,135
Vote Percentage – 2.25%
2024:
Seats Contested – 125
Seats Won – 0 (Nil)
Votes Polled – 10,02,557
Vote Percentage – 1.55%
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP):
2009:
Seats Contested – 113
Seats Won – 62
Votes Polled – 74,20,212
Vote Percentage – 16.37%
Congress-NCP Alliance
2014:
Seats Contested – 278
Seats Won – 41
Votes Polled – 91,22,285
Vote Percentage – 17.24%
No Congress-NCP Alliance
2019:
Seats Contested – 121
Seats Won – 54
Votes Polled – 92,16,919
Vote Percentage – 16.71%
Congress-NCP Alliance
2024:
NCP Split – NCP Sharadchandra Pawar faction (NCP-SP) & NCP Ajit Pawar (NCP-AP) faction.
NCP-SP:
Seats Contested – 86
Seats Won – 10
Votes Polled – 72,87,797
Vote Percentage – 11.28%
NCP-AP:
Seats Contested – 59
Seats Won – 41
Votes Polled – 58,16,566
Vote Percentage – 9.01%
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