Exit poll projections across five key states indicate a dramatic electoral battle, with the BJP leading in West Bengal and Assam, Congress gaining momentum in Kerala, and Tamil Nadu heading for one of its closest contests in recent years.
Exit Polls Predict Fierce Multi-State Battle
The first wave of Exit Poll Results 2026 has painted a dramatic picture across West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, with early projections suggesting gains for the BJP in Bengal and Assam, a Congress advantage in Kerala, and an intense neck-and-neck battle in Tamil Nadu.
While the numbers vary sharply across polling agencies, the broad trend points to a politically explosive result day on May 4, with several states likely headed for closely contested outcomes.
The biggest surprise comes from West Bengal, where multiple exit polls suggest the BJP may be on the verge of a major breakthrough, challenging the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in one of the most fiercely fought elections in the country.
BJP Projected to Surge in West Bengal
In West Bengal, projections from ABP suggest the BJP could emerge as the single largest party, with an estimated 146 to 161 seats, while the TMC is projected between 125 and 140 seats.
Another survey by Matrize News also points to a BJP advantage, estimating 146 to 161 seats for the saffron party and 130 to 140 seats for the ruling TMC.
However, People’s Pulse has predicted the TMC will cross 110 seats, indicating that the contest remains far from settled.
Assam Exit Polls Show Comfortable NDA Lead
In Assam, exit polls indicate a relatively clear picture, with the BJP-led NDA expected to comfortably retain power.
According to CNN-News18, the NDA is projected to win 90 to 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc is estimated to secure 23 to 33 seats, while the AIUDF may remain in single digits.
These projections suggest that the BJP’s electoral base in Assam remains solid despite anti-incumbency concerns.
Congress-Led UDF Ahead in Kerala
In Kerala, exit poll trends indicate a tight race, but the Congress-led UDF appears to hold a slight advantage over the ruling LDF.
Axis My India projects the UDF at 44 per cent vote share, ahead of the LDF’s 39 per cent, while the NDA trails at 14 per cent.
The figures suggest that Kerala may be heading for a competitive finish, with the Congress alliance currently in a stronger position.
Tamil Nadu Heads for a Photo Finish
Tamil Nadu is emerging as one of the most closely fought states, with exit poll projections indicating a razor-thin margin between the two major alliances.
According to CNN-News18, the AIADMK-led NDA is projected to win 114 to 124 seats, narrowly ahead of the DMK-led alliance, which is estimated at 103 to 113 seats.
The data also shows actor Vijay’s TVK making a noticeable impact, with a projected 4 to 10 seats, while securing a sizeable 15.8 per cent vote share.
The tight numbers indicate that Tamil Nadu may witness a dramatic counting day.
High Voter Turnout Sets Stage for Dramatic Results
The strong turnout across all five regions has added further suspense to the final results.
Assam recorded 85.96 per cent voter turnout, while Puducherry saw 89.87 per cent voting, its highest turnout in over five decades.
Tamil Nadu registered around 82.24 per cent turnout, while West Bengal also witnessed heavy participation across both polling phases.
The high voter participation suggests a highly energised electorate, increasing uncertainty over the final verdict.
With counting set for May 4, the exit poll projections have already triggered political excitement, but the final outcome may still deliver major surprises.
