A GALLUP survey claims seven out of 10 Pakistani’s have lack of faith in their electoral system. What with Ahmadis disenfranchised and non-Muslims have to sign oaths just to get enrolled as voters!
X: @prashanthamine
New Delhi: Despite lofty constitutional guarantees, pessimism runs high amongst Pakistanis as the country braces itself for the February 8 elections to 336 National Assembly and 749 Provincial Assembly seats.
Nearly 70% of Pakistanis are pessimistic about worsening economic conditions with inflation hitting a record high of 29.7% in December 2023. Seven out of 10 Pakistanis have lack of faith in their electoral system, says a recent GALLUP survey. The impact of the August 2022 flooding that affected nearly one-third of the country, directly affecting 33 million Pakistanis is still being felt on the economy.
It is an election wherein the entire Pakistani deep state, its Army, the courts and just about everybody opposed to former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has rallied as one to ensure that neither he nor his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party are left in any position to contest the polls, let alone win it.
Imran Khan has been sent on a 10 year long jail term, just to ensure that he has no chance to influence the election outcomes in any way. The fact that nearly after seven-year self-imposed exile since 2017, former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif was allowed to return to Pakistan in October last year. All this could not have been possible without the benign blessings of the Pakistani Army.
Considering this it is an open secret as what is going to be the eventual outcome of what looks like a well scripted election. By the provisions of the Pakistani Election Act of 2017, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is supposed to declare the results within 14 days, that is by February 22.
As per International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) snapshot, an electorate of 12,85,85,760 of which 2,20,00,000 are new voters will decide the fate of 17,816 candidates competing for 859 single-member constituency seats in the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies.
Out of the total 12.85 crore registered voters, 6,92,63,704 crore (53.87%) are men and 5,93,22,056 crore (46.13%) are women voters. Since the 2018 elections, 2.20 crore new voters have been added to the voters list, of which 5,68,64,196 crore (44.22%) voters are in the age group of 18 to 35 years of age.
As per section 48A of The Election Act of 2017, the Quadiani group, or the Lahori group (who call themselves ‘Ahmadis’ or by any other name) the status remains unchanged (that is they are not registered as voters). If a non-Muslim has to get himself enrolled as a voter, the Revising Authority by notice asks such a person to appear before him within 15 days and require him to sign a declaration regarding his belief about the absolute and unqualified finality of the Prophet. If the person refuses to sign the declaration he shall be treated as non-Muslim and his name shall be deleted from the voters list and added to a supplementary list as a non-Muslim voter.
Polling will be held across 90,675 polling stations across Pakistan. As per The Election Act of 2017, campaign expenditure limit for a National Assembly seat is 10 million rupees (Pakistani Rupees), about 35,675 USD, that is 29,60,472.04 Indian Rupees (INR). Whereas, the campaign expenditure limit for a Provincial Assembly seat is about 4 million Pakistani Rupees, about 14,270 USD, that is 11,84,188.82 INR. There is no limit on donations to a candidate by any individual or entity.
Besides, the elections to the National Assembly, elections to the 4 Provincial Assemblies of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh. More than half of the 90,675 polling stations across the country have been declared as “sensitive” or “highly sensitive” by the ECP, which speaks volumes of the security scenario inside Pakistan. In 2023 alone, more than 1,000 civilians and security forces have lost their lives in militant attacks, the highest in the last 6 years.
Although the electoral system in Pakistan is based on the first-past-the-post ballot paper system, at the National Assembly level the voters will elect 336 members, who in turn will fill 266 seats through single member constituencies. Nearly 60% of seats are reserved for women and 10% seats for non-Muslims, through a Proportional Representation Party List system based on the number of general seats won by a political party.
At the Provincial Assembly level in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh, voters will elect 749 members, which includes 593 General seats. Under the Proportional Representation Party List system, 132 seats are reserved for women and 24 seats are reserved for non-Muslims.
A break-up of the 266 seats out of the 336 seats in the National Assembly reveals as to why the Punjab region with its 141 seats dominates Pakistani politics and its military. The second largest share of 61 general seats is in Sindh. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has been merged with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region in a recent delimitation exercise with a combined 45 general seats. The Federal Capital region (Islamabad) has 3 general seats. Besides this there are 60 seats reserved for women and 10 seats are reserved for non-Muslims.
In addition to the reserved seats for women, the Election Act directs political parties to ensure at least 5% representation of women in selection of candidates for general election. As per the ECP, there are 22,71 candidates in the poll fray for the general seats in the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies, which includes 1,027 women candidates.
Although there are about 15 major political parties in Pakistan, the main contenders in the poll fray include Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), Imran Khan’s PTI, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Muttahida Qawmi Movement (MQM) from the Sindh province.
Besides these political parties there are political parties like Balochistan National Party (BNP) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) which represent the mineral resource rich Balochistan region. There are also two political parties that claim to represent the minorities in Pakistan namely the – All Pakistan Minorities Alliance (APMA) and the All Pakistan Minority Movement (APMM).
The constitution of Pakistan empowers the ECP to void the results at one or more polling stations or the election in the entire constituency if the turnout of women voters is less than 10% of the total votes polled in the constituency.
Immediately following the closing of a polling station, its presiding officer conducts the vote count onsite. The ballots that are deemed valid are counted, sorted according to the candidate for whom the ballot was cast, and placed in packets that are sealed later. The presiding officer then prepares the polling stations results by listing the number of votes cast for each candidate and number of ballot papers excluded from the count.
Thereafter, the presiding officer takes a snapshot of the result and as soon as connectivity is possible submit the same electronically to the ECP. Where it is not possible to do so, the presiding officer must personally deliver the results and all physical documents to the returning officer.
After that the returning officer, after receiving all the results for the constituency, announces the provisional consolidated statement of results for the constituency. At this stage the results do not include the postal ballot cast for the constituency. After the provisional results are announced the returning officer reviews the ballots that were excluded from the initial count to determine whether they were valid or not, he then proceeds to count and add the postal ballots.
In case there is a challenge to the vote count regarding the narrowness of the margin and the provisional vote count meets certain conditions, the consolidation process must be completed within 7 days for the National Assembly seat and within 5 days for the Provincial Assembly seat. The results are then sent to the ECP within 24 hours of the completion of the tabulation of the results.
Immediately after the election results are announced the ECP is required to set up election tribunals to adjudicate any election disputes. Thereafter, contesting candidates have 45 days to file petitions before the election tribunal. The tribunal has to decide on the petitions within 180 days from the date of the filling of the petition. Any appeal against the decision of the tribunal has to be filled before the Supreme Court of Pakistan within 30 days and the apex court is expected to give its ruling within 180 days.
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