This might be the first time that a pandemic has engulfed almost all the countries. The well off, well equipped and the most aware countries about the health and sanitization have affected the most. Many leaders have already said that this is a war with an invisible enemy. The way Coronavirus emerged and spread very systematically all over the world appears to me like it is nothing but Economic Warfare. Economic Warfare implies that to harm the economy of enemy country by various means and methods without firing a single bullet.
Economic warfare is not fought on the battlefield but discouraging or preventing trade with emerging competitor or the enemy country. Chinese ancient scholar Sun Tzu writes in his book, Art of War, “To fight and conquer in all battles is not the supreme excellence; the supreme excellence is in breaking enemy’s resistance without fighting.” So, it is necessary to understand the background of economic warfare on the eve of Covid-19. The Covid-19 is mere cause for economic warfare like in the First World War the death of Austrian prince Arch Duke Francis Ferdinand and his wife became the immediate cause of the war though many things happened before it.
Primarily, Covid-19 appears to be the same. China seems to have started it but soon it overturned on itself. It is been seen that whenever such kind of pandemic occurred in any part of the world, huge propaganda is made to sell certain medicine. The propaganda is made in such a way that even those countries are not affected by pandemic but they are forced by fear to purchase the medicine as a preventative measure. Alone India had purchased millions of Tami flu tablets When swine flu virus emerged. Swine flu has the same symptoms what we talk about the Covid-19.
There is a huge business involved in the emergence or unleashing of a pandemic. In such a situation the role of WHO is very significant to get recognition to certain medicine to sell it in the global market. Why this time the role of WHO has become controversial? Is it because it has changed loyalty? In earlier cases of the emergence of a virus, it is observed that a virus is emerged in developing or underdeveloped countries and people are affected by the same countries but medicine came from developed countries.
This time too, the virus is emerged in a developing country (still China claims as a developing state) but it affected developed countries the most. The death rate in developed countries is far from developing countries. Surprisingly, how this time the immunity power of the people from developing countries increased and the immunity power of the people from developed countries decreased. It is a million-dollar question.
This time China might have wanted to play a game of virus which is already played by the western countries in the earlier cases. I say its game of economic warfare because there are certain questions which need to understand in the proper context. First, when the virus emerged in Wuhan City in December 2019 and spread in the rest of the world by international travellers via Airplane, but why it is not spread in the rest of China? The virus travelled thousands of kilometers to spread in the world but did not travel few hundred kilometers to spread in China, why? Wuhan city was lockdown on 13 January 2020, till the time it was open to all domestic and international travellers. How the virus did not spread during this period in the cities at least those are close to Wuhan?
Moreover, when it was spreading in European countries and before these countries gone for lockdown measure, many flights were running from Europe and other parts of the world to different cities of China. But even then, the virus did not spread in China! why? These questions forced me to think out of the box. China might have ready with testing kits, certain drug, Personal Protective Equipment etc. to sell it in the world market under the name of containing Covid-19. Other developed countries used to do the same.
China might have thought that other countries, at least overpopulated and crowded cities may not go for complete lockdown and will not be able to break the chain. This would help to keep the flow of medical supply. This will help to show its supremacy and advancement in medical science and create an image of the savior of humanity. China claimed that it has contained it with the lockdown of only one city and partial quarantine measures in some other places in China. Lockdown measure is very bitter; it harms many things including the state economy. But it is presented as the only panacea.
Initially, the American President also expressed sympathy to the Chinese government and the people those became victims of the virus. But soon after America realized that it is more than just a virus, and this is the right time to begin the much-talked trade war with China. America has a huge trade deficit with China and it is not right to fight it on the battlefield. Because the war on the battlefield with China is assured mutual destruction even if there is victory.
The U.S. trade deficit with China in the year 2019 was dollar 345 billion. The trade deficit was a major election issue in the 2016 presidential election in America and it is this time too. European countries also do face the trade deficit with China. In the year 2019, according to Eurostat, the total trade with China stood at Euro 560 billion with Euro 164 billion trade deficit in favour of China. Most of the countries in the world do face trade deficit with China so they are supporting the U.S. offensive propaganda against China under the name of Covid-19.
Amid this situation, most of the countries suspended their trade relations with other countries of which China is a big sufferer. The export-oriented economies are worst affected by this war. The Chinese economy is one of the most export-oriented economies. In this Economic Warfare, U.S. will continue offensive propaganda against China on the ground of artificial devaluation of the Chinese currency, intellectual property protection policy, China’s industrial policy, China’s threat to the small States in the South China Sea; trade deficit etc. even after the Presidential election in America is over. Other countries are also looking at it as an opportunity to reduce their trade deficit with China.
This has already had an adverse effect on China’s foreign exchange reserve.
China’s continuous economic growth, technological advancement, military modernization and capability are posing a challenge to American supremacy in the world. In 1999 Chinese military colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui say in the book, Unrestricted Warfare, “The great masters of warfare techniques during the 21st century will be those who employ innovative methods to recombine various capabilities so as to attain tactically, campaign and strategic goals.”
Taking into account these things, America would never like to go down its supremacy in world politics at the same time Europeans shall not accept China’s supremacy. It’s only through harming the economy, China’s rise will be prevented or delayed. India entered in this strategic economic war.
…. to be continued, final part 3.
Dr Rohidas Mundhe is Assistant Professor in the Department of Civics and Politics, University of Mumbai. Areas of interest are in world affairs, Politics of China, South Asia and Refugee Study. He had been in China for a couple of times for academic engagement. (The author can be contacted at mundejnu@gmail.com)
