Central Hall – Red Giant China!

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: The aggressive territorial expansionism of China is increasingly appearing like the celestial phenomenon called the Red Giant in which a star in its last phase of evolution expands in size, unable to sustain itself later collapses with a big bang like a Supernova. China at present appears to be heading in a trajectory similar to the celestial evolution of any star.

Already a hostile China has annexed Tibet, Turkestan, southern Mongolia, Manchuria, Pamir valley, Yunnan, Shaksgam valley and many smaller territories in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and South-China Seas (SCS) way beyond its natural and sustainable borders, through deceit.

If that is not enough it is using its debt diplomacy to entrap and ensnare economically weaker nations like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Iran and many African nations through its initiatives like Belt and Road Initiative. It has devised programs like Thousand Talents program to infiltrate and defraud high end research in the USA and other western countries. It is little wonder then that the Trump administration is asking China to shut its consulate in Houston and is hot on the heels of Chinese military personnel masquerading as research students in top-notch US universities.

Time and again history has shown that great kings, dynasties, despots, dictators who have shown such expansionist tendencies have not been able to sustain it in the long run. The succeeding rulers were unable to hold on to the vast empires that the despots had built, leading to the eventual demise of these kingdoms. Be it Alexander the Great, the Ottoman Empire, Nazi Germany and others were unable to maintain control over the vast swathes of land that they held.

Also Read: Central Hall – Foreign Policy & Diplomacy

Of course there are fault lines within China, be it the Uyghur problem, or the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Three Gorges Dam floods, South-China Seas, Tibet and danger of its own debt diplomacy boomeranging on it given the adverse impact that the Covid-19 pandemic it has had internally on China.

Expansionism or diverting attention of your own people from internal problems may well serve immediate gains, but will not sustain in the long run as sustaining that expansionism requires sustained economic growth which looks doubtful given the fact that the pandemic has affected the global economy.

There are several intellectuals, arm-chair experts and think-tanks are dishing out advices left-right and center on how the country should be responding to Chinese aggression. The situation is reminiscent of what it was before the Sino-Indian 1962 war. Reports and documents of those times show how misplaced political, media and public opinion drove and shaped Indian diplomacy and its response to China, leading to several Himalayan Blunders.

Problem with our diplomacy has been that often it has been an outcome of the tussle for supremacy between the political executive and bureaucratic establishment. Worst still is the lack of public awareness of diplomatic protocols and etiquettes. Career diplomats like former Georgian president Eduard Shevadnaze could not halt the disintegration of the former Soviet Union as its foreign minister. Neither could famous World War II US general Douglas MacArthur halt the military reverses US faced in the Korean war that followed later.

The tragedy has been that we have been so enamored by Chinese thinkers and military strategists like Sun Tzu and Confucius that we tend to overlook deeds of our very own Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, Arya Chanakya and several of our ancient rulers, their deeds and ancient texts. As they say you forget or ignore your own history, you are often condemned to live by it.