@prashanthamine
The just concluded biennial elections to the three Graduates and two Teachers constituencies in Maharashtra Legislative Council have left a bitter taste in the mouths of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Shiv Sena. The BJP paid a heavy price for being not just complacent, but utterly overconfident and also a bit naïve. While the Shiv Sena still Smarting over the flattery heaped on it seems to be unawares that it has been short-changed despite being in alliance with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
The very fact that there were more candidates in the poll fray for these five seats left no one in doubt that these Legislative Council elections were turned more into the Legislative Assembly or Lok Sabha elections.
Out of the 78 candidates in the fray for the Pune division Graduates constituency, 65 candidates were Independents. Same was the case in Aurangabad division Graduates where out of the 32 candidates in the poll fray, 22 were Independents. In Nagpur division Graduates constituency out of the 26 candidates in the poll fray, 20 candidates were Independents.
What is significant to note here is that out of the 26 candidates in the poll fray in Nagpur seat, 9 contesting candidates were eventually eliminated from the race as they failed to meet the required quota of votes needed to be elected.
A similar picture was on display in the two – Amravati and Pune division Teachers constituencies. Out of the 28 candidates in the poll fray in Amravati Teachers constituency, 24 were Independents. Worst still, there were 50 candidates in the poll fray in Pune division Teachers constituency, out of which 45 were Independent candidates.
Respectively both in the Amravati and Pune division Teachers constituency, 18 contesting candidates were eventually eliminated as they failed to meet the required quota of votes needed to be elected.
The presence of such a large number of Independent candidates in the poll fray and a significant of them getting eliminated because they failed to meet the required quota of votes needed to be elected raises serious questions about the motive behind their large presence in the poll fray.
Unlike Lok Sabha and Assembly elections these Council polls have preferential voting, where second preference votes are counted of those candidates who fail to meet the required quota of votes. If they are not exhausted by fraction, they are transferred to the intended chosen second preference candidate. Otherwise, if the value of votes is very less then it becomes exhausted and cannot be transferred.
In short the presence of such a large number of Independents in such polls is often intended to cut votes, woo disgruntled voters or fence sitters into wasting their ballot. If the Independents individually and collectively garnered small amounts of votes which if eventually were to go waste, the purpose for the main contender to stay in the race and if possible win it, is served.
It is hard to understand as to how the BJP which otherwise Smarts itself over having a well-oiled election machinery could not have read into the game-plan that saw it being dethroned from its Nagpur bastion after 55 years!, and from its Pune bastion after close to 20 years! Nagpur has been the bastion of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) , BJP’s Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis.
Worst ignominy for the BJP was in store in Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council where it lost both the Varanasi division Teachers and Graduates constituency seats which were won by the Samajwadi Party wrested both the sitting BJP seats. The legislative council constituency falls under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency.
Another reason being attributed for the stunning, stinging defeat by some BJP an insider is that the party leadership got far too complacent, made the wrong choice of the candidate and failed to ensure new registration of graduate voters. In these constituencies, voter registration and re-registration (unlike in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls) happens every six years and the candidate who ensures maximum registration stands better chance at winning.
Another fallacy of these elections is that one need not be a graduate, a teacher or a local authority councilor to be a contesting candidate for these elections. But you need to be graduate or a teacher in order to enroll ones name in the voters list. Worst still a teacher can cast two votes, once as a teacher and second time as a graduate in both the constituencies. But a simple graduate voter cannot have a dual vote!
Fadnavis later admitted that the BJP under-estimated the combined strength of the ruling Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Even if that were to be true, it still does not explain the Sena’s unexpected loss in its sitting seat of Amravati division Teachers.
As things stand today in the numbers game in the legislative council, the Sena despite having the maximum number of seats amongst the MVA partners has to be contended with the Deputy Chairman’s post. Both the Congress and the NCP have less than what the Sena strength is and yet the NCP holds the Chairman post.
What is equally baffling is that the BJP despite being the single largest party on the opposition benches in the upper house is for some strange reason not interested in upsetting the political and numerical equations in the upper house and make life difficult for the ruling MVA. Prior to the 2019 polls, despite the BJP being in power, the NCP had used its clout in the upper house to make life difficult for the BJP.
While the BJP is using its heavy political artillery in elections to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC), it is bit surprising that it is behaving utterly naïve or is it over-confidence. According to some political analysts the BJP is still romanticizing its ties with the Sena which is now in the MVA camp. After the Hyderabad civic polls, the bigger test in the form of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) awaits for the BJP and Sena.
