CBI probe in SSR case, is it a new lease of life for Nitish’s JD-U in poll bound Bihar?

Interestingly in the 2015 Bihar assembly polls, the Shiv Sena had fared even better than the BJP and polled more votes. Will the MVA governments’ apparent showdown with the Bihar government over the handing over of the CBI probe, mar Sena’s electoral chances this time around?

@vivekbhavsar

Mumbai: Exactly 65 days after suicide of Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput, the Supreme Court on Wednesday transferred the probe to the Central Bureau of Investigation. Was it just the life line that beleaguered Bihar Chief and Janata Dal United President and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was looking for as he braces for the electoral battle in coming October?

However, more should be read into the handing over of the case to the premier investigating agency of the country then mere jolt to the Mumbai police or predicament to the Uddhav Thackeray led coalition government. 

The significance of the recommendation for the CBI probe made by Bihar Chief and Janata Dal United President Nitish Kumar Minister on August 4, amidst growing clamour from various quarters from various quarters of the society is one thing which should be looked at more closely.

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In less than two months’ time, the assembly elections to the 243 member Bihar legislative assembly are due to take place in October 2020. Amid political tussle, RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav has been posing a massive challenge to the JDU leader. Tesjashwi’s lone battle against Kumar in the absence of his father is something which has been grabbing eyeballs of not just his detractors but political pundits as well.  

Only recently, Tejashwi was able to poach one of the minister’s in the Nitish government, Shyam Rajak. Rajak is known for his thorough political acumen and can sense which way the political wind is blowing when it comes to state politics. In Bihar’s political parlance he is called as the weatherman of politics.  He is often compared to Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Ram Vilas Paswan and changes side according to the direction in which the wind is blowing. 

Rajput’s political turnaround

For years, caste politics has played a dominant role in Bihar politics and this time too it will not be any different. There are about 130 extremely backward castes (EBCs) in Bihar. Four upper-castes – Brahmins, 5% Bhumihars/Babhan, 5% and Rajputs 4 % among others. 

Nitish eyes Rajput votes

From sending an IPS officer from Patna to Mumbai to probe the suicide case of Sushant Singh Rajput to demanding a CBI enquiry, Nitish Kumar has left no stone unturned when it comes to appeasing the Rajput vote bank. He also got his Director General of Police, Gupteshwar Pande to take on the Maharashtra Government and Mumbai police “head-on” in slamming them for dragging its feet.  

Up until now till the apex court transferred the case to the CBI, the Bihar Chief Minister and JD-U leader was feeling the heat from RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. More than that it may be recalled that the Shiv Sena had played a spoilsport for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections damaging electoral prospects in at least 35 assembly seats.

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What had raised the eyebrows of many was that despite being a Maharashtra based party the Sena had then managed to poll more than 2 lakh votes. It had even hailed Nitish Kumar as the new national hero who would alter the course of national politics. The Sena had fielded 100 candidates but failed to win a single seat. The Sena had then termed Nitish Kumar as ‘Mahanayak’ and showered praise on him for his humility.

What transpired between Bihar and Maharashtra in the last few days is bound to have had a profound impact on the Bihar assembly elections and the CBI probe has come just at the right time as a breather for beleaguered JD-U chief Nitish Kumar.