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Thiruvananthapuram: There is a palpable surge in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kerala, as obvious from the public response to his back-to-back visits to the southern state.
Still, it is not going to be easy for the party to convert the goodwill enjoyed by the supreme leader into electoral gains, going by the specific demographic and political factors as well as the organisational weaknesses.
It will be an uphill task for the party to surmount the challenges and break the electoral jinx in the left-ruled state where the Congress continues to be the alternative.
Modi was in Kerala on January 3 when he addressed a women’s gathering organised by the party, where he punctuated his address with the refrain “Modi’s guarantee”, triggering loud applause. He flew down again on January 16, followed by a slew of programs the next day. On both occasions, his road shows witnessed people coming out in large numbers to wave and cheer him.
The second visit saw him worshipping at the famed Lord Krishna temple at Guruvayur and Sree Ramaswamy temple at Thriprayar. In Guruvayur he also attended the wedding of the daughter of actor-turned BJP leader Suresh Gopi.
Despite the wedding at Guruvayur being a star-studded event with who is who from the Mollywood present, the show was entirely stolen by Modi himself. As is his wont, Modi sent out vibes by blessing not only the couple for whose wedding he was the special invitee but also other couples who tied the nuptial knot in the holy precincts that day.
The focus of both visits was Thrissur in central Kerala. It is there that the BJP is now concentrating all its energy to try and make an electoral breakthrough in Kerala.
Significantly, Suresh Gopi, who a few months back retired from the Rajya Sabha, is pitted to be the party candidate from the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat. He is energetic, vibrant, and a skilled communicator, though he narrowly lost the contest for the Thrissur assembly seat in 2021.
The ever-desperate BJP in the state is pinning all its hope on the tremendous goodwill that Modi enjoys among large sections of the Hindu fold, especially among the upper crust. His standing received a further boost with two influential community organisations—the Nair Service Society and the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam of the Ezhava community– enthusiastically endorsed the Ayodhya temple consecration ceremony slated for January 22.
Both the outfits, well embedded among the two numerically strong Hindu caste groups, called upon people to celebrate the occasion by invoking Lord Ram and lighting diyas at home.
Regardless of the high acceptability of Modi as a strong leader helming India in its journey to emerge as a world power, the question remains how well the party in the state is equipped to make electoral gains by skilfully building on this advantage.
Going by the ground realities, there are grim challenges before the party makes it to the victory stand, at least in a couple of seats like Thrissur or Thiruvananthapuram.
The roadblocks are obvious:
The image of the BJP as essential a Hindu nationalist party, in a state where Muslim and Christian minorities make up nearly half the population. In most constituencies in the state, the strength of minorities is decisive. This makes it obvious that the BJP may not be able to pull off a victory without scaling up the index of Hindu unity.
Winning over at least a slice of minority votes is also crucial to cross the electoral rubicon. Winning over Muslims is well neigh impossible, going by the prevailing mood and the configuration of national and international events.
Large sections of the community are still emotionally not reconciled to the Ayodhya developments. The Hamas-Israel conflict also has an emotional impact on the community, and a feeling is strong that India under the BJP rule has diluted support to the Palestinian cause.
Coming to the Christians, the BJP has, of late, been making concerted efforts to win the goodwill of the community. The party leaders have called on the church heads. But the majority of Christians seem yet to be convinced of the good intentions of the saffron party.
The Christians in Kerala also have strong feelings about the ethnic strife in Manipur and the targeting of Christian institutions in other parts of the country.
Also, unlike the perception outside, Christians are not a monolithic group in Kerala. Though Catholics are the most dominant, Kerala has umpteen number of church denominations, having varied interests that often clash with each other. Appeasing all the disparate groups with a broader approach is hard.
Scaling up the index of the Hindu community is critical for the BJP to bag at least a couple of the Lok Sabha seats. Beneath its progressive veneer, Kerala society has serious fault lines defined by caste and community divides. Both the LDF and UDF have skilfully exploited the subterranean sensitivities for electoral gains over decades, frustrating the BJP’s efforts to build its political project on Hindu unity.
Raising the bar of Hindu unity is all the more important to overcome the challenge of strategic voting by rivals wherever the BJP candidates come perilously close to winning.
Trust deficit in the state leadership is another factor that continues to spoil the BJP’s plans in Kerala. Over the years, the BJP has repeatedly changed its state leadership. But for the initial spurt, such exercises have run off the course sooner than later.
Electoral micromanagement is another big issue that needs to be tackled. This was emphasised by Modi himself when he addressed the party workers during his visit to the state.
Last but not least, identifying good candidates in a few selected seats is an issue that the party leadership needs to address in all seriousness. In Thrissur, the party has almost narrowed in on Sursh Gopi, who appears cut for the role with his regular visit to the area. But the party is yet to spot such candidates in other politically crucial seats including Thiruvananthapuram.
Also Read: Invite to top Cong brass to Ayodhya irks party in Kerala
