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Thiruvananthapuram: ‘Captain’ is the latest epithet by which the Left Democratic Front (LDF) ranks refer to chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan as the ruling coalition is seeking a fresh mandate with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) strongman as its pivot. This is for the first time that Kerala is witnessing an unambiguous personality-centred campaign, though the state has been famed as the laboratory of many an experiment in coalition politics for over half-a-century.
Even as a clear picture of the line-up of contestants is yet to emerge out of the pre-campaign haze, the defining feature of the unfolding electoral battle is that it is basically Pinarayi Vijayan versus others.
The nearest the state saw the personality-oriented politics in the past was during the heyday of the late Congress stalwart Kannoth Karunakaran. Even he did not have a free run for long. Despite being highly ambitious, popular and shrewd, his rivals in the party, identified with A K Antony, proved his nemesis. It is an altogether different story how they conspired his fall by dragging him into the infamous space spy scandal.
Ever since he became a frontline player, after being made the state secretary of the CPI-M two decades back, Vijayan has consistently consolidated his position in the organization.
It was with the support of former chief minister V S Achuthanandan that Vijayan got elevated to the top party slot. A past master of factional battles, Achuthanandan had thought that Vijayan would remain a loyal lieutenant in his inner party manoeuvres. He was proved wrong, and he regretted it later. His pitchforked successor from the red bastion Kannur in north Kerala was far too ambitious, to be reined in by the mentor, and capable of outwitting his friends and foes alike.
Vijayan not only fell-out with his mentor soon but also became his tormentor. If Achuthanandan became chief minister in 2006, it was largely because of his mass appeal, the support he received from the ranks outside the organizational set-up and the backing of the central committee and politburo. But his five-year tenure saw the party’s state structure under the firm control of Vijayan giving the senior leader a hard time.
By the time Vijayan assumed as chief minister in 2016 after a long successive run as the party boss, Achuthanandan had become pretty old, and got completely side lined with the reward of a sinecure as the chairman of the Administrative Reforms Committee, with all the paraphernalia of a cabinet minister. The last five years saw him sliding into silence and insignificance.
The increasing irrelevance of the mainstream Left in national politics also suited Vijayan’s rise as the undisputed leader in the lone state where the party mattered and enjoyed power, without being checked and balanced by the apex organisational apparatus. This was obvious from the way he pulled the levers of power to mute any voice being raised against him.
Even the rout of the LDF in 2019 Lok Sabha polls did not shake his pre-eminent position as the party was totally devoid of a credible challenger. He also came out unscathed from the sound and fury of the gold smuggling scandal that jolted the state, despite a top official in his office coming under cloud.
The 75-year-old Vijayan is set to go on a personal pitch to all the 140 assembly seats in the length and breadth of the state, paling all others, including his own party’s chair-bound central functionaries, as mere shadows.
The main plank of the LDF is “development and welfare.” The coalition claims that the Government has set a commendable record on both counts, and it is in the interest of the people that it returns to power under the same leader. A couple of pre-poll surveys have hinted at the possibility of LDF retaining power.
Observers, however, hold that the greatest advantage of the LDF is the weakness of the United Democratic Front (UDF). If Vijayan receives renews his mandate and erases the state’s record of alternating between two fronts, it would largely be a victory by default. A month is too long a time in politics where fortunes are reversed in days!
The UDF is yet to set its house in order. As the lead constituent, the Congress has failed to close in on any single leader as chief minister candidate. In normal situation, as the shadow chief minister by virtue of being the opposition leader, Ramesh Chennithala would have been the natural contender. After failing to counter the LDF in the civic polls and losing a key ally, the central leadership has drafted former chief minister Oommen Chandy to lead the campaign, leaving the leadership question still open.
Well before the election date was formally declared, the party has been witness to garrulous claims and denouncements by ticket-seekers. The seat-sharing among the coalition partners is also to be completed. Th Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), as the second largest partner in the UDF, has demanded a few additional seats this time. The Congress would have to drop a few seats from its share to accommodate demand of the key ally.
In spite of its organizational debilities and the grim resource crunch it faces, it would be unwise to write off the UDF. As a rainbow coalition of various interests and communal configurations, it had often in the past pulled off electoral surprises even in the face of severe adversities.
As the third player, the BJP too has its crop of internal issues. The names of probable candidates doing the rounds include the state party chief K Surendran, former Meghalaya governor and Hindutva face Kummanam Rajasekharan and technocrat E Sreedharan, who joined the party recently.
Aware of the factional pulls and pressures of the state unit, the central leadership has sent a stern message to the state functionaries to close their ranks and fight united to make a breakthrough this time round. Even if the saffron party bags around five seats it could upset the other two fronts in the house where the halfway mark is 71 seats.
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