@the_news_21
Mumbai: The fact that polling in the sensitive poll bound states of West Bengal is being held in eight phases between March and April, three phase polling in Assam and a watchful eye on Tamil Nadu known for its extravagant poll spending, it only underscores the heightened political stakes involved. It is rather perplexing that the Election Commission of India (ECI) has not factored in Kerala where bloody clashes between the ruling Left and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in recent times have become more bloodier than before.
Between March 27 to April 29, 18.8 crore voters will cast their ballot at 2.7 lakh polling stations spread over 824 Assembly constituencies in four states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Union Territory of Puducherry. Counting of votes and declaration of results will be taken up on May 2.
Taking note of the recent bloody clashes between the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (AITC, TMC) and the BJP, the ECI has gone in for an elaborate 8 phase polling spread over almost a month. The same holds true for sensitive border state of Assam where polling will be held in 3 phases. However, the 140 assembly constituencies in Kerala go to polls on a single day on April 6.
The stakes are especially high for AITC supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee as she goes for a hat-trick of sorts to retain power. Although her main adversary is the BJP, she cannot remain complacent at the Congress and the Left parties forming another third front. In 2016, Mamata Banerjee had single-handedly decimated the opposition with a landslide victory, bagging 203 of the 294 assembly seats. With a steady stream of cadres, trusted aides and legislators leaving TMC, this time around it will not be easy for Mamata Banerjee to retain power for the third time in a row.
In 2016 West Bengal Assembly polls the AITC or TMC had bagged 203 seats, leaving the rest 91 seats to – Congress 43, Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) 23 seats, BJP 3, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) 3, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 3, All India Forward Bloc 1 and Independent 1 seat.
The half-way majority mark is 147 seats needed to be won to grab power. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been representing the Bhabhanipur assembly constituency.
In Assam, BJPs blue-eyed boy Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal will look to retain power in a multi-cornered contest with Baduddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF) and the Congress. However, the main triangular contest appears to be between the BJP, AIUDF and the Congress. In the 2016 Assam assembly elections, BJP had bagged 60 seats, Congress 26, AGP 14, AIUDF 13, BPF 12 and 1 seat was bagged by an Independent.
The half-way majority mark to win power in Assam is 63 seats. Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has been representing the Majuli assembly constituency in the Assam state legislative assembly.
In the 140 member Kerala assembly, it remains to be seen whether the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, CPI-M led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is able to retain power and break the jinx of power changing hands with the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF).
But this time around the BJP is hoping to alter the bipolar politics and offer a third alternative. In recent months there have been several bloody clashes between the LDF and BJP cadres. The LDF is trying hard to doge the anti-incumbency factor and the controversial Gold Smuggling scandal.
Will the BJP be able to improve on its tally of just 1 seat in the 2016 polls remains to be seen. The party-wise in the 2016 polls was as follows: BJP 1, Communist Marxist Party Kerala State Committee (CMPKSC) 1, Communist Party of India (CPI) 19, CPI-M 58, Congress (Secular) 1, Independents 6, Congress 22, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 18, Janata Dal (Secular) (JD-S) 3, Kerala Congress (Jacob) 1, Kerala Congress (M) 6, Kerala Congress (B) 1, National Secular Conference 1 and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 2 seats. The half-way majority mark to get to power in Kerala is 70 seats.
Congress’s V Narayanswamy had to tender his resignation as the Chief Minister of the Union Territory of Puducherry, just days before the ECI announced the poll dates. Narayanswamy was forced to step down as some Congress legislators quit the party reducing the government to a minority one. The Congress and Narayanswamy had serious differences with former Lieutenant Governor Kiran Bedi. She was replaced recently by Tamilisai Soundararajan who holds temporary charge.
In the 2016 Puducherry assembly elections, the Congress had barely managed to get to the half way mark by bagging 15 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazghagam (AIADMK) 4, All India N R Congress 8, Dravida Munnetra Kazghagam (DMK) 2 and Independent 1 seat. The half-way majority mark to get in power is 15 seats. The former chief minister V Narayanswamy had been representing the Nellithope assembly constituency in the Puducherry assembly.
The ECI is keeping a close watchful eye on poll bound Tamil Nadu which is known for candidates often indulging in extravagant, lavish poll expenditures. The poll pitch that was already queered somewhat by actor Kamal Haasan’s new political outfit Makkal Needhi Maiam. Though superstar Rajanikanth stepped back from entering the poll fray, the timing of the release of V K Sasikala (Sasikala Natarajan) from prison only adds to the anxieties of not just ruling AIADMK Chief Minister Edappadi K Palanisamy, but also for the faction ridden DMK and Kamal Haasan himself.
In the 2016 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, the AIADMK had won130 seats, DMK 86 seats, Congress 8 and IUML 1 seat.
The half-way majority mark to grab power here is 117 seats. AIADMK Chief Minister Edappadi K Palanisamy represents the Edappadi assembly constituency. The 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly polls will be more interesting to see whether the multi-cornered contest favours Edappadi K Palanisamy or Sasikala torpedoes his ambition to retain power.
The tenures, strength and majority mark of the state assemblies is as follows – Assam – tenure was to end on May 31, 2021, strength 126, majority mark 63; Kerala – tenure ends on June 1, 2021, strength 140 seats, majority mark 70 seats; UT Puducherry June 8, 2021, strength 30 seats, majority mark 15 seats; Tamil Nadu – tenure ends on May 24, 2021, strength 234 seats, majority mark 117 seats: West Bengal – tenure ends on May 30, 2021, strength 294 seats, majority mark is 147 seats.
Polling in Assam is in three phases on – 1st phase 47 assembly constituencies on March 27, 2nd phase 39 assembly constituencies on April 1 and 3rd phase 40 assembly constituencies on April 6.
Polling in West Bengal is in eight phases – 1st phase – 30 assembly constituencies, 5 district’s on March 27, 2nd phase – 30 assembly constituencies, 4 districts on April 1, 3rd phase – 31 assembly constituencies, 3 districts on April 6, 4th phase – 44 assembly constituencies, 5 districts on April 10, 5th phase – 45 assembly constituencies, 6 districts on April 17, 6th phase – 43 assembly constituencies, 4 districts on April 22, 7th phase – 36 assembly constituencies, 5 districts on April 26 and final 8th phase – 35 assembly constituencies, 4 districts on April 29, 2021.
Polling in Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu will be held on April 6. Counting of votes and declaration of results will be on May 2.
