Two Dalai Lamas: The Coming Crisis of Legitimacy

China Analyst, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China

After the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday celebrations last month, speculations have resurfaced about where and how the next reincarnation will take place. The Chinese government has categorically stated that the Chinese government will have the ‘final say’ in Dalai lama reincarnation and that the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation would be found using a domestic search and approval by the Central government. In a statement by the deputy secretary of the CCP committee in Tibet, Gama Cedain, the Chinese government ruled out the role of the current Dalai Lama reinforcing their traditional stance that the Dalai Lama is a ‘separatist’ –  “a wolf in a monk’s robes.” The administration further stated that the “reincarnation had never been decided by the Dalai Lama himself,” and assured that the Chinese government will follow the strict religious rituals and historical customs of the reincarnation of living Buddha.
 
Meanwhile the current Dalai lama, 14th in the line of spiritual leaders for the Tibetan Buddhism, asserted that reincarnation will be born outside China and ruled out Beijing’s role in choosing his successor. The Dalai Lama seems quite confident given the huge numbers of followers he enjoys among the Tibetan Buddhists both in the exile and in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) domestically. However, as the Dalai Lama grows old, two possibilities emerge very clearly: first, that two simultaneous representatives from both TAR and the Tibetan community abroad would emerge, which would entail a legitimacy crisis and second, the Chinese government would completely not let the Tibetan government in exile (TGiE) take this matter in their own hands indicating that only one Dalai Lama chosen by the CCP will be able to take precedence.
 
In both cases, the opinion and the support of the Tibetan masses is hardly a causal factor. What becomes important from the people’s perspective is whether the Dalai Lama’s institution is still powerful enough to evoke feelings of ethnic nationalism prodding the locals and the exiles to raise voiceagainst the government in a movement of revolution and throwing away what the Chinese government has to offer in terms of a centre-backed Dalai Lama; more importantly whether they have the will to do so. The Chinese government will not refrain from use of force if need be to assert control over the Tibetan Buddhists in the TAR region.
 
The Tibetan history bears many precedents as far as China’s forceful assertion is concerned. For instance, three decades ago China installed a Tibetan Buddhist monk picked up by Beijing as the faith’s No.2 leader, the Panchem Lama, after a six-year old chosen by the Dalai Lama for the position disappeared in 1995. Besides, even if the Tibetans resort to self-immolations, as was the case a few years ago when the Tibetans tried to protest against the Chinese government in an attempt to reassert their faith in the continuity of the Tibetan institutions and against China’s ostensible ‘cultural genocide’, the government undeniably will yet again not give in to their demands and relent to their methods of protests.Consequently, only the Tibetans in exile have a chance to explore international mobilisation of support for the Tibetan cause of appointing the next Dalai Lama through votes and monetary sustenance for their struggle.
 
Speaking objectively, the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama has more facets to it than simply being appointed by the government. According to the Tibetan practices, there have to be traditional signs indicating the birth and appearance of the next Dalai Lama, guided by the Kaal-chakra of Buddhism. The Dalai Lama is believed to be a Bodhisattva of compassion, Avalokitesvara, who reincarnates to benefit all sentient beings. Following his death the search for his reincarnation begins, guided by the Gelug school’s high lamas and Tibetan government officials, who is mostly still a child. This includes recognising possessions of the previous Dalai Lama and consulting oracles.
 
While both the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama claim to conform to this traditional method of finding the next Dalai Lama, few signs have appeared so far and even if it has been kept in secret, the Chinese  government is unlikely to legitimise the successor chosen by the  Tibetan-in-exiles, which is why an impeding crisis of legitimacy whereby two Dalai Lamas assigned by each side fighting for legitimate accession cannot be ruled out.
 
What will be India’s stake in this accession? Being the birth place of Buddhism, it is in India’s best interest to facilitate a traditional search for the institution of the next Dalai Lamathrough the golden Urn process, whether inside China or born-in-exile. Though the Indian government has reasserted that it maintains a neutral stance on all religious matters and provides for equality of all religions, it should suomotosupport the International Buddhist Confederation under the regular World Buddhist Conferences to identify signs, if visible anywhere across the world. In fact, the possibility of his birth outside China, elsewhere, for instance – across the Southeast region should also be kept open and the Chinese should be brought face to face with this reality.