Kerala: CPI(M) Turns Assembly By-Poll into Prestige Battle

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Thiruvananthapuram: In a deft political move, the CPI(M) has transformed the otherwise low-key assembly by-election in Nilambur, located in Kerala’s Malappuram district, into a prestige contest by fielding one of its most promising youth leaders, M Swaraj, as the LDF candidate.

The decision signals that the party is taking the Nilambur contest seriously, particularly with less than a year remaining for the completion of the LDF government’s second term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The Chief Minister himself is leading the campaign from the front, underscoring the importance the party attaches to the by-poll.

Initially perceived as being on the back foot, the CPI(M) has now activated its campaign machinery to mount a formidable challenge to Aryadan Shoukath, the candidate of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Shoukath, son of the late Congress veteran and former minister Aryadan Mohammed, is a popular public figure in his own right and commands significant goodwill in Nilambur.

The by-election, scheduled for June 19, was necessitated by the resignation of P.V. Anvar, who had won the seat as an LDF-backed independent in both 2016 and 2021. A businessman-turned-politician, Anvar was once one of the most favoured figures in Left circles. However, he turned against the government after some of his key demands were denied, launching an aggressive campaign against what he now describes as “Pinarayism”—a mix of hubris, corruption, and nepotism.

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Having severed ties with the CPI(M), Anvar resigned to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law, hoping for a red-carpet welcome from the UDF. To his dismay, the Congress showed little interest in accommodating him on his terms. In desperation, he attempted to join the DMK but was cold-shouldered by the party’s Tamil Nadu leadership. He then aligned with the All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC), where he now serves as the party’s Kerala state convener.

Isolated in Kerala’s largely bipolar political landscape, Anvar has entered the fray as the AITMC candidate. While his presence is unlikely to alter the outcome significantly, he may cut into peripheral votes—though it remains to be seen which front will be affected more.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a key UDF ally, enjoys a strong base in Nilambur. However, unlike other parts of Malappuram where IUML dominates, both the Congress and CPI(M) have established some ground in Nilambur.

The BJP has fielded Mohan George, a political novice and recent entrant from a splinter faction of the Christian-dominated Kerala Congress. Though the BJP has minimal electoral stakes in Nilambur, George’s candidacy is aimed at reinforcing the party’s outreach to Kerala’s Christian community.

Nestled at the foothills of the Western Ghats and bordering Tamil Nadu’s Nilgiris district, Nilambur has a long history of working-class movements, particularly among plantation and farm labourers. While it is a Muslim-majority area, it also has a significant Hindu and Christian population—the latter largely comprising settlers from central Travancore.

The contest between Shoukath and Swaraj is expected to be tight, judging by early indicators. Both candidates are rooted in Nilambur. Swaraj began his political journey here as a student and youth leader. A former legislator, he is seen as a rising star in the CPI(M), and a win in Nilambur would further cement his status in the party.

Shoukath, for his part, is regarded as a politician with a difference—active in social, cultural, and civil affairs, known for his progressive outlook, and even dabbling in film production.

With less than a year to go for the 2026 Assembly elections—and local body polls slated for later this year—both the LDF and UDF are taking the Nilambur by-poll seriously. A victory would serve as a morale booster for the LDF as it prepares to seek a historic third term under the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan.

Conversely, a win in Nilambur is crucial for the UDF to project itself as a united and viable alternative. The Congress in Kerala is grappling with severe factionalism, which has only worsened following a recent top-down overhaul by the central leadership. A by-poll defeat could further inflame internal divisions, complicating the party’s prospects in the run-up to the state elections.