40% of BSNL’s Mobile Users Exist Only on Paper; TRAI Data Delivers a Major Blow to Government Revival Plans

Mumbai: The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) Subscription Report for October 2025 has revealed one of the most alarming truths of India’s telecom sector: nearly 40% of BSNL’s declared mobile subscribers are not active on the network at all. According to the Visitor Location Register (VLR) — the metric that counts only active users — BSNL’s active subscriber base stands at just 59.45%. In simple terms, four out of every ten BSNL mobile connections are dead SIMs.

This is not merely a commercial setback; it is a direct indictment of the massive revival packages that the Central government has pumped into BSNL and MTNL over the past six years. Despite approximately ₹2.7 lakh crore in government support since 2019 — including 4G/5G spectrum allotment, VRS schemes, debt restructuring, and capex funding — BSNL’s active user base continues to shrink, and its presence in the telecom market is weakening steadily.

In contrast, private telcos continue to deliver nearly perfect active-user numbers. Airtel’s VLR stands at 99.55%, while Jio and Vodafone Idea are above 90%. The gap highlights not just BSNL’s technological lag, but also its service quality challenges, slow network upgrades, and chronic managerial inertia. BSNL’s 4G rollout is still not complete across India, while private players have already surged ahead with 5G and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) solutions. The result is a steady shift of both urban and rural customers toward private operators.

TRAI’s data also underscores a deeper, long-term revenue crisis. Inactive SIMs contribute nothing to actual revenue. They inflate subscriber counts on paper, but add no value to the company’s financial health. For a PSU that plays a crucial role in national security, border connectivity, and government communications, a collapsing active user base poses serious questions about its long-term viability.

The TRAI report holds a mirror not only to BSNL but to India’s digital connectivity landscape as a whole. India’s total telephone subscriber base has reached 1231.38 million, and headline tele-density stands at 86.76%. Yet beneath these impressive numbers lies a harsh imbalance: urban tele-density is 134.66%, while rural tele-density is only 59.72%. One India has more than one mobile connection per person, while the other India still struggles to reach even 60% connectivity. Even after a decade of Digital India, the divide persists — a failure not of technology, but of policy priorities.

Of India’s 1184 million wireless subscribers, growth is now almost entirely rural-driven. Urban markets are saturated, and the next wave lies in Tier-2, Tier-3 towns and villages. Wireline connections are growing, slowly but consistently, but the government’s ambition of widespread household fibre remains unfulfilled in most states. Meanwhile, 5G and rooftop CPE-based Fixed Wireless Access are growing rapidly. For many operators, it is faster, cheaper, and easier to install an FWA device than to lay fibre. Rural India especially is gravitating toward this model. National policy, however, has not caught up with this shift.

Market concentration is another stark feature of the report. Jio and Airtel together control 82% of India’s broadband market. Vodafone Idea is still struggling to stabilise financially, and BSNL–MTNL remain dependent on government aid. Real competition in India increasingly exists only on paper; actual market dynamics revolve around the Jio–Airtel duopoly. This trend can have long-term implications for pricing, QoS, spectrum distribution, and consumer rights. Both TRAI and the Competition Commission of India face a major policy test.

Mobile Number Portability data reflects an extremely quality-sensitive consumer base. October 2025 alone saw 1.5 crore MNP requests — with UP East, UP West, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar emerging as churn hotspots. This churn is not merely about tariff offers; it signals dissatisfaction with uneven network investments, especially in semi-urban and rural areas.

The rise of India’s M2M/IoT ecosystem is one of the most promising but under-discussed aspects. The country is rapidly moving towards 100 million IoT connections — driven by smart metering, logistics, POS devices, and the EV ecosystem. Yet India still lacks a comprehensive policy framework for IoT security, data protection, and telecom-dependent public services. Cybersecurity threats in this sector are growing faster than regulations.

The TRAI report is therefore more than a dataset — it is a sharp commentary on the structural challenges of digital India. The country is connected, but not equitably. The market is large, but competition is narrow. Consumer numbers are rising, but public sector telecom is shrinking. Broadband is expanding, but not reaching every household. Rural India is ready to leap ahead, but governance systems lack the speed to support it.

BSNL’s 40% inactive-user reality underscores a decisive truth: India’s telecom future depends not just on funding or technology, but on governance, strategy, and institutional accountability. Revival packages alone cannot rescue a PSU in decline. Without structural reform, operational speed, and technological alignment, BSNL’s relevance in India’s telecom map could shrink significantly in the coming years.