Already trailing his Democrat rival Joe Biden Jr in poll surveys and FEC Commissioner Caroline C Hunter resigning on June 26, things do not appear bright for Trump in a close contest for the November polls.
Mumbai: Close on the heels of the resignation of Federal Election Commission (FEC) Commissioner, Caroline C Hunter (Republican) on June 26, US President Donald J Trump received yet worrisome news as the US Supreme Court in two cases relating to his 2016 presidential campaign allowed States to fine or remove Electoral College members who fail to vote for the Presidential candidate they were pledged to support. The cases relate to Democrat Electoral College members turning rebel and voting in favor of Independent candidate, thus paving the way for the eventual victory of Donald J Trump
The US Supreme Court in two separate judgments in the – Chiafalo – vs – Washington case and Colorado Department of State Petitioner – vs – Micheal Baca and others unanimously upheld “Faithless Elector” laws.
Some states have laws that punish such electors for not voting for the candidate to which they pledged support. There have long been legal questions about enforceability of such laws. About 15 of the states in the US have some sanctions in place, almost all the states remove such “Faithless Electors” substituting with alternative electors. Few states impose monetary fine on any elector who flouts his pledge.
The Chiafalo case relates to three Electors from Washington – Peter Chiafalo, Levi Guerra and Esther John (all Democrat electors) back in 2016 Presidential elections had violated their pledge to support Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and instead voted for an Independent candidate, thus paving the way for Trump victory. The Washington state had then fined all three $1,000.
The US SC judgment now puts an end to cross-voting or rebellion by Electoral College voters of a particular party. The judgment has now extended the legal provisions in some states to be made applicable all over the United States of America. The judgment comes barely three months ahead of the Presidential elections in November later this year.
The judgment could not have come at time when US national polls from US media houses and independent pollsters are painting an uphill task for Trump to secure a second term in office. Most blame President Trump for his handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, the job losses, and the George Floyd killing of May 25 this year.
As per US pollsters, out of the total 308 Electoral College votes that Biden enjoys support of, 198 votes are from 17 states regarded as solidly Democrat and 110 votes from Democrat leaning states. Clearly, if polls are held today, Biden will not require the 98 votes from 5 “Toss Up” states (where the race is neck-and-neck) to win the Presidential elections.
Whereas, out of the total 132 votes of the Electoral College that Trump enjoys support of, 115 votes are from 21 states regarded as solidly Republican, 17 votes from Republican leaning states. It thus leaves a very narrow path to victory for Trump, unless he turns things around in the next three months.
What is worse that despite the Howdy Modi event in Houston, Texas in September last year, the Texas state is now categorized as “Toss Up” state for the Republicans and Trump. It may be recalled that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had attended the Howdy Modi event hosted by the Indian diaspora in the US where Trump was invited to attend. It was seen as a subtle way to boost Trump campaign.
Trump is trailing in the battle for key states like – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and is even trailing in Republican firewall states like Florida and New Carolina. States like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Maine had turned solidly Democrat. While, states like Maine, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida are now termed as “leaning Democrat.” The 5 states being termed as “Toss Up States” include – Texas, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
The grimness of the situation for President Trump can be gauged from the fact that out of the 21 states that are solidly Republican, it is only in states like Indiana and Tennessee that he commands sizeable popular vote. Out of the three Republican leaning states, Trump commands sizeable popular votes in Missouri and Maine.
In percentage terms, Biden leads Trump by 14 percentage points. Biden today leads by 50 percentage points, whereas Trump leads by 36 percent. There are 14 percent voters who are still undecided. Compared to Trump, Biden appears to be enjoying support from the wide cross section of the electorate at present. Age wise Biden is 77 years old, three years older to Trump who is 74 years old. On the key current issue of containing the Coronavirus, Biden has an edge with 47 percent support and Trump 41 percent approval rating in handling the crisis.
