Thiruvananthapuram: The ensuing Assembly elections in four states will be high-stakes battles for the country’s major political players, both regional and national.
The results in these states are especially crucial for two regional parties—the All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) of West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) of Tamil Nadu.
Polls ahead are also significant for the BJP and the Congress, though the results will have no serious fallout on the NDA government at the Centre.
A renewed mandate in Assam is critical for the BJP to bolster its claim as a sustainable alternative in the eastern region. For the Congress, a return to power in Kerala, heading the UDF, will be a booster shot after a string of electoral debacles across the country.
Also going to the election is the Union Territory of Puducherry.
West Bengal
The biggest poll-bound state, West Bengal has been ruled by the AITMC since 2011.
The battle line in the state is drawn between the AITMC and the BJP.
Once a CPI(M) stronghold, West Bengal turned into a graveyard for the Left after it lost power in 2011. That turned out to be a knockout punch from which the mainstream Left is yet to recover. Not just that, the defeat also hollowed out the CPI(M)’s claim of having transformed the state on egalitarian lines during its 34 years in power.
The Congress too is a nominal player in West Bengal, compelled to partner with the CPI(M) in changed circumstances. It is not yet clear if this partnership will continue this time. Even if it does, it is not going to make things different.
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In 2021, the AITMC renewed its mandate, lifting 215 seats in the 294-member Assembly. Though the BJP mounted a high-voltage campaign and poll surveys predicted a photo finish, the party had to settle for a modest tally of 77 seats.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AITMC held its ground, winning 29 seats. The BJP grabbed 12 seats, affirming itself as the principal opposition.
Holding on to power is crucial for the AITMC and its superstar Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. A defeat would lead to the disintegration of the party. A victory, on the other hand, would elevate Mamata Banerjee’s national standing.
An astute campaigner, Mamata Banerjee is fully geared up to take on the BJP tenaciously.
She commands a strong support base stretching across backward classes, rural communities, and the Muslim minority. Signals from the ground suggest that the BJP may find it tough to breach this rock-solid edifice.
For the BJP, annexing the state will be a dream come true. That will raise the party’s credibility as a formidable force capable of foraying beyond its traditional turf. This is why the West Bengal campaign is being led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself.
Besides consolidating its support among forward communities, elite voters in urban landscapes, and upwardly mobile backward classes, the BJP also expects that turbulence in Bangladesh would turn the electoral tide in its favour.
Assam
Assam is set for a direct fight between the ruling BJP-led alliance and the Congress-led front.
In 2021, the NDA, which included regional allies like the AGP, bagged 75 of the 126 Assembly seats. Since then, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has emerged as the BJP’s pivot.
Gaurav Gogoi, leading the Congress’s campaign, is a close confidant of the party high command and is seen as its chief ministerial choice.
The initial round of campaigning has taken a shrill pitch, with the BJP harping on the alleged threat posed by ‘infiltrators’ from Bangladesh, with its eyes set on Hindu consolidation. Just as in West Bengal, the turmoil in Bangladesh could help reinforce the NDA’s position among its traditional base.
On the flip side, there is a strong minority consolidation towards the Congress. But the big question is whether the party will be able to garner a good slice of the majority vote as well to make a comeback.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu has been a consistent outlier, keeping the national parties away from power since 1967.
Cashing in on the regional political identity assiduously built through the social justice campaign dating back to pre-Independence days, the state has been ruled by political outfits driven by Dravidian ideology after the 1967 watershed election.
The principal contest in the state is between coalitions led by the ruling DMK and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), with which the BJP has aligned. Though the BJP calls the alliance the NDA, AIADMK leaders, sensitive to Dravidian identity politics, prefer to refer to it as the AIADMK-led alliance.
TVK (Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam), floated by actor-turned-politician Vijay, has hit the campaign trail as an X-factor. It, however, remains to be seen whether the newly floated party will end up as a vote-cutter or emerge as a key player, possibly even the kingmaker, with a decent number of seats.
Tamil Nadu is the only poll-bound state where the ruling DMK has taken on board the entire I.N.D.I.A. bloc, though nominally. The DMK, however, has rejected the Congress’s demand for participation in the government.
Led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, the DMK hopes to sustain the support of most backward classes, SC-ST communities, and Muslim and Christian minorities. Party strategists are taking no chances this time round to ensure that Vijay’s TVK does not dent this formidable voter base.
The AIADMK front enjoys the support of forward communities and upwardly mobile backward classes, as well as SC-ST communities.
Kerala
India’s lone Left-ruled state, the outcome in Kerala is crucial for the CPI(M), which has been in power for a decade as the vanguard of the Left Democratic Front.
If the trend of the recent local body elections persists, the LDF is headed for defeat at the hands of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
The BJP still stagnates as a distant third, despite making incremental gains in civic elections and even gaining power in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation.
The civic polls reflected a strong minority consolidation in favour of the UDF, in which the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is the second-largest partner, besides the pro-Christian Kerala Congress (Joseph) as a minor partner.
The LDF is all set to hit the campaign trail under the ‘captaincy’ of Chief Minister and CPI(M) stalwart Pinarayi Vijayan. The coalition, making an all-out bid for a hat-trick win, does not look averse to subtly playing on majoritarian anxieties to counter the UDF. The CPI(M) leadership, however, has rejected suggestions on these lines.
The Congress has made it clear that it will go to the polls without projecting any leader as its chief ministerial candidate.
Puducherry
Though Puducherry falls within the Tamil Nadu ecosystem linguistically and culturally, the Union Territory has often thrown up different results.
The UT is ruled by an alliance of the All India NR Congress and the BJP. The “NR” in the ruling party’s name refers to Chief Minister N Rangaswamy. In 2021, this combine grabbed 16 seats in the 30-member House. The DMK-led front took the remaining 14 seats.
The contest this time too follows the same pattern. It is not clear whether Vijay’s TVK will cut its teeth in Puducherry as well.
