Rishi Sunak’s Party Braces for Severe Election Setback, Survey Reveals

The YouGov model, which forecasts results in individual parliamentary seats based on estimated vote share, projects that Sunak's Conservatives

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The British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is bracing itself for what could be its worst defeat at the national election anticipated later this year, as indicated by a recent survey released on Wednesday. The survey predicts that the main opposition, the Labour Party, is poised to secure over 400 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to win just slightly over 150 seats in the UK’s 650-seat parliament. This would mark a significant setback for the Conservatives, who have held power since 2010 but have witnessed five different Prime Ministers due to various controversies.

The YouGov model, which forecasts results in individual parliamentary seats based on estimated vote share, projects that Sunak’s Conservatives would secure just 155 seats, while Labour would dominate with 403 seats. Polls consistently show Labour holding a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, ahead of an election that Sunak anticipates calling in the latter half of the year.

“These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats,” reads the YouGov analysis.

The latest projection indicates that the Conservative Party is on track to win fewer seats than it did in 1997, when it suffered a landslide defeat to Tony Blair’s Labour Party, securing only 165 seats. Labour, however, is projected to fall short of the 418 seats won under Blair, with the projected 154-seat majority also less than the 179 majority it won in 1997.

At least 18,761 British adults were surveyed by YouGov from March 7 to 27 for the survey, with the headline election result based on the model showing Labour on 41 per cent of the vote and Conservatives on 24 per cent. However, it’s noted that the results may differ from regular polling due to its treatment of those without a current voting intention.

The Conservatives have grappled with numerous controversies, including Brexit and the COVID crisis, resulting in ongoing political turmoil. Despite efforts to regain popularity, Sunak has faced challenges in fulfilling election promises and addressing issues such as the cost-of-living crisis.

As internal strife within the Conservative Party persists, there are rumblings of discontent among backbenchers, with some advocating for a leadership change ahead of the impending general election. Despite a recent tax-cutting budget, Sunak continues to struggle to gain momentum, leading to speculation about potential leadership alternatives within the party.

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45 COMMENTS

  1. Wow, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party faces a tough road ahead, with predictions of a significant election loss. 🇬🇧📉 Labour is projected to dominate! #UKPolitics #ElectionForecast 🗳️🔍

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