@prashanthamine
Mumbai: Barely four days into his presidency, Democrat US President Joe Biden from his first day in office begun to reverse some of the major decisions of his Republican predecessor Donald J Trump. It is not so much the reversal of domestic policies that is causing heart burns, but it is the 360 degree abrupt turn in US foreign policy that has set alarm bells ringing in nations capitals around the world. The next two years will be testing times not just for India, but for Biden as well. His executive actions have made Iran and China breathe that much easy and ruffled feathers amongst some of US allies.
In his first few executive actions, Biden began with lifting the travel ban imposed on some countries in the Arab world, hinting at the revival of the Palestine issue, hinting at re-engaging with Pakistan for its Afghanistan policy or reassuring the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies of reviving support. Trump had dumped the NATO and wanted it to fend for itself. He also had trade issues with most of the European countries.
Some of his moves have already begun to have their repercussions felt across the globe. The revival of the Palestinian issue has already raised concerns in Israel as the US Ambassador to Israel briefly changed his Tweeter handle to “US Ambassador to Israel, the West Bank and Gaza” that raised hackles in Israel.
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had red-flagged China over what he called “genocide” of Uighurs in its Xinjiang province, China hit back at Pompeo by imposing sanctions on Pompeo, Robert O’Brien, and John Bolton among 28 other officials from the Trump administration for their anti-China stand.
Indications that China has begun to breathe easy can be gauged from the fact that it has once again begun to flex its muscles before Taiwan and some of its neighbours. The re-entry of the US in the World Health Organisation (WHO) will also mean that China will be off the hook.
If that is not enough the regime change in the US has emboldened North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un to denounce Trump who had tried to broker peace deal between North and South Korea.
After the Covid-19 pandemic broke out there was clamour for action against China. There was a diplomatic and trade stand-off between China and Australia. What becomes of the US, Australia, India and Japan led Quad Alliance which was essentially set up to keep the waters of the Indo-Pacific region free for navigation and keep the Chinese expansionist ambitions under check.
President Biden while referring to China, Iran and West Asia issues said that his administration would play by the rules, which has already warmed the cockles of the heart for many. It remains to be seen as to what stand President Biden takes on Iran nuclear deal. Already Iran has been on the tenterhooks after the assassinations of its General Qasem Soleimani or more recently its nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The tension in the Persian Gulf is one big challenge for President Biden. The Syrians feel that the US is unfairly targeting them as the real attackers of the US have been the ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The indication of reviving the Palestinian issue and softening of its stand against Iran has clearly dismayed Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In his last days of presidency, Trump had signed the “Abraham Accords” by removing the Palestinian angle from it. Given his indication for reversing all major policy decisions of the Trump administration, the move has its implications for India as well.
Trump was in favour of US troops pulling out from Afghanistan. Pakistan is already seeking revival of its military ties with the US. The purge of all right wing officials in the administration, veterans, army men and what it calls domestic terrorists has its implications for India as it will have to endure a somewhat hostile Biden administration for the next four years.
There are some US policy experts who have already red-flagged Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s support for Trump in his November 2020 re-election bid as one thing that the Biden administration might hold against India. The other issues that might be under the scanner are the US military and high-end dual use technology to India. Vice President Kamala Harris’s stand on the Modi government repealing Article 370 is also well known.
Besides that the fate of the Indo-US nuclear deal, also known as the 123 Agreement that was signed on July 18, 2005 by then Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and US president George W Bush, when Biden himself was the Vice President. The mega nuclear power plant at Jaitapur with French assistance is a corollary of that deal.
President Biden has however supported India’s bid for Permanent Seat at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). It remains to be seen as what stand does the Biden administration take. Prime Minister Narendra Modi might as well have to rework, re-network or revive his once warm ties with Democrat and former US president Barrack Obama.
But what one needs to understand here is that there is a sea-change in the global perception of what India was in 2005 to what India is today in 2021. The US administration and WHO have both acknowledged and praised India for its initiative to supply Covid-19 vaccine free of cost worldwide.
For weapons purchase the French Rafale or the purchase of the S400 missile defence system from Russia, India has shown that it is no longer dependent on the US for high end military hardware and support. Uri and Balakot surgical strikes have shown that India no longer needs to look at the US for prior approval while taking anti-terror actions.
Thirdly when it comes to financing mega infrastructure projects, India no longer depends on US dominated World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it has other options like the Japanese, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Moreover, the US can ill afford to arm-twist India any longer for the risk of losing a lucrative growing Indian market.
But one thing it has shown it to the world and India is that in International Diplomacy and Foreign Policy there are no permanent enemies or permanent friends. You just need to be deft at handling both your perceived friends and enemies with equal ease to get what you want without hurting either of them overtly.
What is significant to note here is that the Democrats have a slender majority in the Congress and wafer-thin majority in the Senate. Hence it will be a tight-rope walk for President Joe Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris, especially in the Senate as they try to push through their policies.
The hung-house like situation at the Capitol Hill is to remain for the next two years until the next round of mid-term elections are due. By declassifying US Indo-Pacific Policy and labelling China for genocide in Xinjiang, Trump has somewhat tied the hands of the Biden administration. Undoing or Reversing the clock back will not be that easy for President Joe Biden.
Actions against Trump so far do not indicate that there is any scope for reconciliation or any healing of already divided America. The fact that the administration had to put up high unscaleable walls for the Inauguration Day on January 20, deploy more National Guard than even in the Middle East, riots and storming in, speaks volumes of the situation that America finds itself in today. Reversing everything and going back to the Stone Age to reinvent the wheel is not the practical thing to do.
