@prashanthamine
Mumbai: More than the raging debate over Bollywood star brat Aryan Khan’s alleged involvement in the cruise ship drug bust case or the personal details of Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) zonal director, Sameer Wankhede, what should ring alarm bells is the rampant drug prevalence in youth, more so, in Asia and Africa.
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in its latest World Drug Report, 2021 predicts that the drug prevalence in youth in Asia which was 80 million in 2018 is projected to rise to 86 million by 2030. Correspondingly, the drug prevalence in youth in Africa which was 60 million in 2018 is projected to rise to 83 million by 2030. The drug prevalence in North America which was 66 million people in 2018 is set to rise to 68 million drug users by 2030.
In 2018, an estimated 269 million people had used a drug at least once in the previous year. Given the global prevalence of drug use and projected population growth, that global number of people using drugs will rise by 11 percent to 299 million by 2030.
What is even more alarming is that women seem to be closing the gap with men in terms of prevalence of drug use. According to the UNODC report, the use or prevalence of Tranquillizers is higher among women than in men. There could be more women using drugs due to population growth.
The rise in Asia is expected to be by 8 percent whereas in Africa it is expected to be by almost 39 percent! Africa is likely to be particularly vulnerable to an increase in the number of people who use drugs by 2030.
What is even more alarming is that global studies are now showing drug prevalence in children as young as 10-year-olds, to a maximum age of 64 years. Worst still age groups between 15 years to 40 years, considered as youth, will be in the grip of drug abuse. The data is more alarming for Africa than for Asia, but alarming nevertheless for Asia as well.
Compare this data with forecasts and reports of global financial institutions that predict Asia and Africa to be the regions of next economic power centres or growth centres. According to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) global economic gravity is shifting towards Asia.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Working Paper of January 2011 does argue that higher degrees of political instability and poverty are associated with lower growth rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita.
That can be ascertained from the instability that countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bolivia, Venezuela, Colombia and Peru are witnessing or have witnessed in the recent past. Most of the countries have been witness to violent military interventions in the past, borne out of political instability.
Also Read: US Senate step closer in sanctioning Pakistan for propping up Taliban in Afghanistan
The Brookings Institution in its September 2018 report had predicted that Africa will be the world’s next great manufacturing centre potentially capturing part of the 100 million labour intensive jobs that will leave China by 2030.
The McKinsey Global Institution in its September 2019 report talks about how Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalisation. It had then famously quoted “The Asian Century has begun!”. As for India, the report argues that a clarion call is sounding for India to put its growth on a sustainably faster track and meet the aspirations of its growing workforce.
Be it the PricewaterhouseCoopers, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute or the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) have each in their reports published rave forecasts for Asia, Africa and India in particular.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in remarks about India in its report says “There will be a billion strong aspirational middle class by 2034, that has rising aspirations. A sixth of humanity, with the intellect, energy and creativity of a young nation is poised to grow rapidly.
JICA on the other hand in its June 2013 report had predicted that by 2050, Africa will catch up with the rest of the world to narrow the gap in terms of living standards and productivity. By 2050, per Capita income would grow six-fold and the number of poor would be reduced 10 fold to fewer than 50 million.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States of America in its November 2008 report had predicted that the growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICS) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7 share of global GDP by 2040-2050. A US Congressional Research Service (US-CRS) research briefing document of April 2015 based on the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) says “AGOA may become more important as other foreign countries, such as China.
According to United Nations Drug Control Program (UNDCP) the conservative estimated number of drug abusers (annual prevalence) in the world in 1990’s, the most widely abused drug was Cannabis (Bhang) with 141.2 million people being addicted, followed by Sedative-type Substances (STS) 227.4 million addicts, Amphetamine-type Stimulants (ATS) addicts 30.2 million, Hallucinogens 25.5 million addicts, Cocaine addicts 13.3 million and Heroin and other Opiate-type substances 8 million addicts. Thirty-one years later, these figures must have more than doubled.
The annual global prevalence rate in illicit drug consumption is in the range of 3.3% to 4.1% of the total global population. The single most widely abused drug is Cannabis (Bhang) with an estimated global consumption by 140 million people. There are about 4 million reported drug abusers in Pakistan alone!
In India, drug prevalence is more rampant in the ages of 10, 12, 17 and 18 years. By 2030, that is set to change and cover the age groups of 30-34 and 35-39 years.
The most alarming part of the UNODC World Drug Report 2021, is that drug prevalence amongst youth especially in Africa and Asia could be higher in the age groups of 30-34 years and 35-39 years. That is the cream of the young working population!
Juxtapose the drug prevalence data with that of reports of Asia and Africa becoming the next economic growth power houses. The illicit narcotics trade becomes even more dangerous with the involvement of terror groups who seek legitimacy by grabbing power. If not checked the rampant drug abuse could derail the growth story, just as one seems faint signs of economic revival.
Just who benefits from the rising drug abuse if its intended target is to derail the rival nation’s economy?
