Polls in five states— the Ídes of March’ moment in national politics

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New Delhi: By March 15, 2022, the profile of governments to rule Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa will be known.

Ominous or auspicious for the major players on the field, the totality of the outcome is going to be the Ídes of March’ moment in national politics, portending to the fortune or bad luck awaiting the ruling and opposition parties in 2024 parliament elections.

Political commentators often tend to base their analyses on the prime question of how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going to fare in the polls. This hinges around the fact that Uttar Pradesh (UP) is the most important of these five states, by its sheer size and history of setting the national mood, offering broad indications of the direction the country is heading in.

The reality, however, cannot be glossed over that these elections will seal the fate of all national parties as well. Their ability and credibility are at stake.

There is no doubt that retaining UP is crucial for the BJP, and much more so for Prime Minister Narendra Modi than the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Failure of the formidable Modi-Yogi combine to secure a back-to-back mandate in UP will deal a grim blow to the confidence of the BJP. It will find it hard to recover from the psychological crisis of that defeat.

On the flip side, the defeat of the BJP in UP will be a morale booster for all opposition parties across the country, whether they have any direct reckoning in that state or not. The mortification of the saffron party will help them recover from their ‘there is no alternative’ complex.

So, a comfortable victory in UP, and a credible showing in four other states, is vitally important for the BJP to brace up for the grand battle in 2024.

For Congress, this round of elections is a matter of its very survival. The elections have come at a time when the party is faced with an existential crisis. A debate is also raging whether Congress continues to have the stature and acumen to remain the nucleus of the anti-BJP opposition axis at the national level.

Going by signals emanating from ground zero, the Congress is unlikely to make major inroads in UP. But the party has betted it high on the state by fielding Priyanka Gandhi as its supreme commander. She has plunged into the battle in right earnest. Priyanka has made her foray into the state well before the polling schedule was announced, making all efforts to mobilize the moribund organisation. A decent performance, if not a victory, is critical for the survival of the grand old party. If its plans go awry, that will be the last straw on the back of the dynasty.

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A rout in UP and loss in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa, will embolden the dissidents to come out with all guns blazing against the family-controlled Congress leadership. For better or worse, such an event would prove to be a defining moment in national politics.

For Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, a victory is inevitable for his very political survival. A second consecutive defeat will render his credibility in tatters. If he romps home trouncing the huge challenge mounted by the BJP, Akhilesh’s stake at the national level also will go up considerably.

The performance of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also decisive in the post-poll scenario. Of late, its supreme leader Mayawati has tended to be less garrulous. But popular and shrewd as she is, she can not be ruled out as an important player in UP.

For Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the current round of elections is more of an opportunity to test waters outside Delhi. Barring Punjab, the party is unlikely to make any serious effort other than luring and relying on a few disgruntled elements from other parties.

Poor performance of the Congress will have its chaotic fallout on the loose and amorphous opposition alliance. That will lead to further assertion by regional players like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, seeking a greater role beyond her home turf.

The post-poll scenario may also see seasoned veterans like Sharad Pawar taking a central role in bringing together regional forces to stitch up a broad national coalition. This could lead to a situation similar to that the country had when the United Front or National Front governments were led by regional parties. Delinked from ideology, a conglomerate of all anti-BJP parties could come together on a common platform if the 2024 Lok Sabha polls throw up a fractured verdict.