Mumbai: The Indian rupee plummeted to an all-time low on Monday, breaching the 86 mark against the US dollar for the first time. The currency closed at 86.39 per dollar, marking a 0.4% decline. This sharp drop is attributed to a series of factors, including a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, pressure from foreign institutional investors, and global economic uncertainty.
The catalyst for the rupee’s downfall came after the release of the US nonfarm payrolls data, which showed that 256,000 jobs were added last month, far exceeding expectations of 160,000. This report signaled continued strength in the US labor market and bolstered the US dollar, further pressuring emerging market currencies, including the rupee.
The positive economic indicators from the US, including robust performance in the services and manufacturing sectors, have made it less likely for the Federal Reserve to consider immediate interest rate cuts. This, in turn, has supported the dollar and weakened the rupee.
The decline of the rupee is also compounded by consistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows from Indian markets. Investors have pulled out over $4 billion from Indian equities this month, following an $11 billion withdrawal in the previous quarter. The uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming policies has further worsened investor sentiment towards the rupee.
Market experts foresee continued pressure on the rupee. Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies, noted that the rupee’s depreciation is in line with its real effective exchange rate (REER), which indicates that the currency is at its most overvalued level in two decades.
Analysts predict that the rupee will continue to weaken, with Bechtel forecasting a dip to 88 against the dollar in the near-to-medium term, and ANZ Bank projecting the same by March.
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