X: @vivekbhavsar
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Sri Lanka for the fourth time, marking his first engagement with newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. This visit comes at a crucial juncture, as Sri Lanka navigates economic recovery, geopolitical realignments, and growing Chinese influence. Modi’s visit is expected to reaffirm India’s commitment to its neighbour while addressing concerns over strategic and economic interests.
India and Sri Lanka share deep-rooted historical, cultural, and economic ties. Over the years, India’s policy towards Sri Lanka has been guided by the principles of Neighborhood First and Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR). Key areas of engagement include Economic Assistance and Development, Security and Strategic Cooperation and Cultural and People-to-People Relations.
India has played a significant role in Sri Lanka’s development, particularly through infrastructure projects and humanitarian aid. During Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic crisis, India extended approximately $4.5 billion in credit for essential commodities and financial assistance.
Given Sri Lanka’s location in the Indian Ocean, maritime security is a critical aspect of bilateral relations. India has conducted joint naval exercises and intelligence-sharing initiatives to ensure stability in the region.
India has promoted educational, tourism, and cultural exchanges to strengthen ties, particularly with the Tamil population in Sri Lanka.
Despite these efforts, India faces growing competition from China, which has significantly expanded its presence in Sri Lanka’s economy and infrastructure.
China has invested heavily in Sri Lanka, financing large infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some of these projects have raised concerns in India.
The most controversial project is the Hambantota Port, which was leased to a Chinese firm for 99 years after Sri Lanka failed to repay its debts. This raised fears of debt-trap diplomacy, where excessive borrowing increases dependency on China.
China’s growing presence in Sri Lankan ports has security implications for India. In 2014, the docking of Chinese submarines in Colombo raised alarms in New Delhi about possible military encroachments in India’s strategic backyard.
China’s financial leverage in Sri Lanka gives it significant influence over policy decisions. India sees this as a challenge to its regional leadership and is keen on countering it through economic diplomacy.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s administration faces the challenge of managing relations with both India and China. His government has already signaled a review of certain agreements with India, including the $442 million wind farm project awarded to the Adani Group. However, Sri Lanka has also assured India that it will not take actions contrary to Indian interests.
Additionally, Sri Lanka is working with international partners to stabilise its economy. It has reached a debt-restructuring deal with Japan worth $2.5 billion and is negotiating with the IMF for long-term financial recovery.
To counter China’s growing influence, India is adopting a multi-pronged approach. India is enhancing its naval capabilities to secure its interests in the Indian Ocean and counterbalance China’s expansion.
India is actively engaging with other South Asian nations to reduce China’s strategic influence in the region. India is offering favourable financial terms for infrastructure projects, aiming to strengthen its role as Sri Lanka’s most reliable partner.
Prime Minister Modi’s upcoming visit to Sri Lanka is not just a diplomatic formality but a strategic necessity. As Sri Lanka seeks economic recovery and geopolitical stability, India must reinforce its position as a trusted ally.
Balancing development assistance, security cooperation, and countering China’s influence will be key to ensuring that Sri Lanka remains within India’s strategic fold. This visit presents an opportunity for India to solidify its leadership in the region while ensuring that Sri Lanka remains an independent and stable neighbor, free from undue foreign influence.
