The Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is likely on course to secure a decisive victory in Jammu and Kashmir’s 2024 Assembly elections, with the support of smaller regional parties, as suggested by exit polls released on Saturday. With the final tally expected to be announced on October 8, major exit polls indicate that the alliance is in a strong position to form the next government.
Credible sources with a history of accurate predictions have released the following projections:
- News 18 India’s exit poll shows the Congress-NC alliance winning around 40 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure 26 seats. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is forecast to win 7 seats, and others are expected to claim 17.
- Republic TV’s exit poll paints a close contest between BJP and the NC, with both expected to win between 28-30 seats each. The PDP is predicted to get 5-7 seats, while Congress may only secure 3-6 seats.
- India Today-C Voter exit poll predicts the Congress-NC alliance comfortably forming the government with 40-48 seats. The BJP is expected to trail with 27-32 seats, while PDP may secure 6-12 seats.
- CNN News 18’s exit poll forecasts the Congress-NC alliance winning 41 seats, BJP taking 27 seats, PDP securing 7 seats, and other smaller parties bagging 15 seats.
The elections were conducted in three phases across 90 Assembly seats, concluding on October 1. The polls marked the first Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir since it was restructured into a Union Territory in 2019. Voter turnout remained robust, with the first phase recording 61.38% on September 18, the second phase seeing 57.31% on September 25, and the final phase hitting 65.48% on October 1.
While exit polls signal a strong position for the Congress-NC partnership, the role of smaller regional parties could be pivotal in securing a stable government. In many predictions, regional players are expected to hold a significant share of the seats, making them crucial for either side to form a majority.
With the official results set to be declared on October 8, the final outcome will determine if the Congress-NC alliance can indeed capitalize on their projected lead, or if the BJP and other parties can challenge their position through potential post-poll alliances.
