Central Hall: By suspending Shimla & trade accords Pakistan has conceded diplomatic victory, India further seals it by putting IWT & aviation agreements on hold

Of the 47 bilateral treaties, agreements, MoU’s, declarations and protocol’s signed between India & Pakistan since 1947, most relate to trade, bilateral treaties and on security matters.

X: @prashanthamine

New Delhi: Little has Pakistan Prime Minister Mia Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif realized that by putting the 1972 Shimla Agreement and suspending various trade agreements that include Most Favored Nation (MFN) status granted to India in 2011, in a way he has already conceded diplomatic victory to India.

It is altogether a different matter that while India went the extra-mile in honoring almost all of the 47 bilateral, multilateral agreements, treaties signed from 1947 to 2012, Pakistan has consistently failed to live up to its promise of honoring all these agreements.

India on the other hand hasn’t recklessly suspended or kept in abeyance any of the 47 bilateral treaties. India has kept 24 bilateral and multilateral agreements in abeyance – five related to use of Indus river waters signed in 1955, 1959, 1960 & 1978, 15 trade agreements from December 10, 1947 to September 21, 2012, and the four Civil and Military Aviation and Shipping related agreements in 1991, 1976, 1975 and 1974.

In yet another calibrated response, India is now considering suspending Trade, Shipping lines and Postal Services to and from Pakistan. Once that happens, Pakistani cargo ships will no longer be able to dock at Indian ports and exports to Pakistan will be hit. It will severely and seriously hamper imports to Pakistan as the Pakistani ships will now have to undertake a longer detour to reach Karachi port, thereby pushing up costs.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was the main comprehensive treaty brokered by the World Bank on the use of Indus river waters signed on September 19, 1960 in Karachi. On April 30, Wednesday, India in a counter-move banned Pakistan airlines from using its airspace in their flight routes to South-East Asia and beyond, and issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen).

India merely took two actions that not only has choked the flow of Indus river waters flow into Pakistan, but also put cost escalation on Pakistan by closing its airspace for civilian Pakistani airlines.

On the other hand Pakistan has by putting the 1972 Shimla Agreement and suspending various trade agreements that include Most Favored Nation (MFN) status granted to India in 2011.

The Shimla (or Simla agreement as it was called then) agreement was a comprehensive peace treaty signed by India and Pakistan in the capital city of the hill state of Himachal Pradesh on July 2, 1972.

The treaty contains two comprehensive points of agreements – Clause 1, sub-clause (ii) and Clause 4, sub-clause (ii).

Clause 1, sub-clause (ii) of the treaty reads as follows, “That the two countries are resolved to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations or by any other peaceful means mutually agreed upon between them. Pending the final settlement of any of the problems between the two countries, neither side shall unilaterally alter the situation and both shall prevent the organization, assistance or encouragement of any acts detrimental to the maintenance of peaceful and harmonious relations;”…

Clause 4, sub-clause (ii) of the treaty reads as follows, “In Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the cease-fire of December 17, 1971 shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. Both sides further undertake to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this Line.”

Going by the wording and the implied meaning of the two clauses, sub-clauses of the Shimla agreement, the agreement comprehensively covers almost all the other 46 bilateral agreements signed between India and Pakistan.

By unilaterally suspending the Shimla agreement what Pakistan has done is that it has effectively removed the recognition of the Ceasefire Line, as the Line of Control (LoC) that was agreed upon in the Karachi agreement signed on July 27, 1949, signed after the first 1947-48 Indo-Pakistan war.

Sixty-five years later, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi led government after coming to power in 2014, on July 8, 2014 asked the U.N. Military Observers Group on India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) that was set up in 1949 after the first war to leave their plush bungalow in Lutyens New Delhi. Thereby effectively rescinding the 1949 signed Karachi agreement between Indian and British representatives, representing Pakistan.

In effect, with the treaty kept in abeyance by Pakistan, India now can very well go back to the 1947 position on ground. India can now legally reclaim the territory that was demarcated as the international border in 1947, now has been illegally usurped by Pakistan for the last 76 years.

Another case of self-goal that Pakistan has done is to suspend the MFN status it had accorded to India in 2011. Pakistan granted the MFN status to India five years after India first granted MFN status to Pakistan in 1996.

Since December 10, 1947 when the first trade agreement was signed, India and Pakistan have signed 15 trade agreements till the last one on September 21, 2012. All this despite the November 26, 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.

Trade continued between the two countries even after the 1999 Kargil war or the numerous terror attacks on India. The current volume of bilateral trade is pegged at little less than $3 billion.

Although officially India is supposed to be importing items like petroleum products, cotton, jute and medical supplies, in reality the only noteworthy commodity that India has been importing from Pakistan has been rock salt.

Despite the intermittent terror attacks from across the Pakistani border, India had never suspended its Cultural agreements and Sports ties with Pakistan. It is only after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that the government decided to ban the release of Pakistani actor Fawad Khan’s Bollywood movie “Abir Gulaal” which was scheduled for release in India on May 9 next month.

Earlier this year in February-March, India had refused to travel to Pakistan to play in the ICC Champions Trophy citing security concerns, forcing the ICC to let India play all its matches in Dubai at a neutral venue.

Out of the 47 bilateral treaties, agreements, MoU’s, declarations and protocol’s signed between India & Pakistan since 1947, most relate to trade, bilateral treaties, security. Trade, bilateral treaties and agreements related to Indus River Waters, military and security dominate the list. The 47 bilateral treaties were signed over a span of 65 years from 1947 to 2012.

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Here are brief details of the 6 major bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan from 1947 to 2012:

1). The Lahore Declaration – February 21, 1999.

The Lahore Declaration was a bilateral agreement and governance treaty between India and Pakistan. The treaty was signed on 21 February 1999, at the conclusion of a historic summit in Lahore, and ratified by the parliaments of both countries the same year.

This agreement provides the framework for peaceful relations between the parties whereby all issues including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir would be resolved by peaceful means. Towards this end, the parties agreed to strengthen dialogue processes, take immediate steps to reduce the risk of accidental or unauthorised use of nuclear weapons, to elaborate confidence building measures and to strengthen the regional organisation of SAARC.

2). The Simla (Shimla) Agreement – July 2, 1972.

The Simla Agreement, also spelled Shimla Agreement, was a peace treaty signed between India and Pakistan on 2 July 1972 in Shimla, the capital of Himachal Pradesh. It followed the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, which began after India intervened in East Pakistan as an ally of Mukti Bahini who were fighting against Pakistani state forces in the Bangladesh Liberation War.

The treaty gave back more than 13,000 km2 of land that the Indian Army had seized in Pakistan during the war, though India retained a few strategic areas, including Turtuk, Dhothang, Tyakshi (earlier called Tiaqsi) and Chalunka of Chorbat Valley, which was more than 883 km2.

3). The Tashkent Declaration – January 10, 1966.

The Tashkent Declaration, signed on January 10, 1966, in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, was a peace agreement between India and Pakistan aimed at resolving the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War. It was signed by India’s Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Pakistan’s President Muhammad Ayub Khan. The declaration included provisions for military withdrawal to pre-war positions, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, and the encouragement of friendly relations between the two countries. 

The declaration was a result of a cease-fire brokered by the Soviet Union’s Aleksey Kosygin. The 1965 war had involved border skirmishes in the Rann of Kutch, escalating into a full-scale conflict over Jammu and Kashmir. The Tashkent Declaration aimed to end the war and initiate a process of peace and normalization. 

The Tashkent Declaration is tinged with grief for India as Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri, who signed the agreement, died the following day in Tashkent. 

4). The Indus Water Treaty – September 19, 1960.

It was signed in Karachi on 19 September 1960 by then Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani president Ayub Khan. The Treaty gives India control over the waters of the three ‘Eastern Rivers’—the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej,—which have a total mean annual flow of 41 billion cubic metres.

Control over the three ‘Western Rivers’ – the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum—which have a total mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic metres, was given to Pakistan.

India received control of 30% of the total water carried by the rivers, while Pakistan received 70%. The treaty allows India to use the water of Western Rivers for limited irrigation use and unlimited non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc. It lays down detailed regulations for India in building projects over the Western Rivers. 

5). The Nehru – Liaquat Agreement – April 8, 1950.

The Liaquat–Nehru Pact (or the Delhi Pact) was a bilateral treaty between India and Pakistan in which refugees were allowed to return to dispose of their property, abducted women and looted property were to be returned, forced conversions were unrecognized, and minority rights were confirmed.

The treaty was signed in New Delhi by the Prime Minister of India Jawahar Lal Nehru and the Prime Minister of Pakistan Liaquat Ali Khan on April 8, 1950. Minority commissions were set up in both countries. More than one million refugees migrated from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) to West Bengal in India.

6). Trade Agreement between India and Pakistan – June 24, 1949.

The first of the bilateral Trade Agreement between India and Pakistan was signed in Karachi on June 24, 1949. The last of the trade related agreements between the two countries was signed on September 21, 2012.

In November 2011, the government of Pakistan announced its decision to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India. The decision, which followed New Delhi’s extension of MFN status to Pakistan in 1996.

Current trade volume is less than $3 billion, but some experts estimate that a normalized trade regime could eventually send the figure soaring to $40 billion.

A large volume of Pakistan-India trade has been informal which not long ago equaled that of formal trade, and is now estimated at about $1 billion. According to an estimate from 2011, Indian cotton, petroleum products, telephones, cars, organic chemicals, and tea accounted for exports to Pakistan, while Pakistani dates, jewellery, medical supplies, rock salt and petroleum oils accounted as imports into India.