Central Hall: Amendment act in 2002 paved the way for the census and delimitation in 2026, census data reveals negligible dip in population in southern states

X: @prashanthamine

Mumbai: It seems as though Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin (M K Stalin) is oblivious to the fact that “The Constitution Eighty-Fourth Amendment Act of 2001”, that was passed on February 21, 2002 clearly states that the delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies shall take place after until the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published.

The law was passed a good 23 years ago. The Congress, DMK led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was in power from 2004 to 2014.

Besides this “The Delimitation Amendment Act 2003, that was enacted on October 31, 2003 had replaced the figures 1991 (census year) with that of 2001 (census year). “The Delimitation Act of 2002 that was passed on June 3, 2002 had repealed The Delimitation Act passed in 1972.

Thereafter, “The Constitution Eighty-Fourth Amendment Act of 2001”, that was passed on February 21, 2002 had substituted the figures 2000 (census year) with the figures of 2026. The act had also substituted or done away with the mention of 1971 and 1991 census.

The same stance was reiterated by Union Minister for Law & Judiciary Kiren Rijiju in a written statement in the Rajya Sabha on March 23, 2023, stating “as per existing law, the next delimitation exercise maybe conducted after the first census to be taken after the year 2026.”

On March 5, TN CM M K Stalin made quite a bizarre demand urging the Centre over the issue of the proposed Delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies in 2026. Chairing a Joint Action Committee (JAC) meeting of opposition I.N.D.I. Alliance he demanded that the 1971 Census should remain as the basis for allocation of seats to the States in the Lok Sabha.

Representatives of the AIADMK, Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Tamil actor Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar @ Vijay led Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Indian Union Muslim League were part of the discussions. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Tamil nationalist party – Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), and Tamil Maanila Congress, led by former union minister G K Vasan, chose to boycott the meeting.

What is even more bizarre is the demand that the current freeze on state-wise allocation of seats in the parliament should be continued for another 31 years till 2056!

The last of the proper delimitation of the Lok Sabha constituencies was done in 1976 that was based on the 1971 Census and that should be continued.

If the Centre is to agree to this demand, then it would mean that from 1976 to 2056 in a span of 80 years, there would have been no delimitation. It would be 50 years in 2026, since the last proper delimitation happened in 1976.

The delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies in 2004 was again done on the basis of the delimitation of the Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies in 1976. Delimitation of the constituencies was again carried out in 2008.

The argument put forth as justification for the justification of the demand has been the alleged perceived decline in population in southern states as compared to the northern states in India. The demand once again rekindles the dangerously divisive north-south divide debate.

After the 1971 Census, the Census was held in 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011. However, in the 1991 Census, Jammu and Kashmir was excluded because of the insurgency. The 2021 Census could not be conducted due to the prevailing restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Delimitation of assembly constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland was only done from 2020 to 2023 again due to insurgency, creation of state’s like Chhattisgarh from Madhya Pradesh in 2000, Jharkhand out of Bihar in 2000 and Telangana out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014.

It is pertinent to note that since 1976, in the last 49 years there has been no proper delimitation of constituencies partly due to insurgencies, state reorganisations and legal disputes over citizenship issues in states like Assam.

Since 1991 what has been happening after the Census is mere readjustments in respect to Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies. While the total number of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies allocated to a particular state have been fixed taking into account the 1976 Census, the total number of reserved Schedule Caste (SC) and Schedule Tribe (ST) constituencies have been increased in 2004 and 2008, taking into account the 2001 Census.

A closer look at the Census data of 1991, 2001 and 2011 reveals that there was negligible dip in population in southern states, only in Kerala where the rural population has seen a decline of 39,47,089 lakhs between 1991 to 2011. However, the urban population in Kerala grew by 82, 54,632 lakhs during the same period. The overall population of Kerala for the same period grew by 4307,543 lakhs.

In Andhra Pradesh, despite Telangana being carved out in 2014, the overall population grew by 1, 80,72,769 crore between 1991 to 2011. The rural population grew by 77, 40,820 lakhs and the urban population grew by 1, 03, 31,949 crore.

In Karnataka the overall population grew by 1, 61,18,096 crore between 1991 to 2011. The rural population grew by 63,99,922 lakhs and the urban population grew by 97,18,174 lakhs.

In Tamil Nadu the overall population grew by 1,62,88,084 crore between 1991 to 2011. The rural population grew by 4,48,236 lakhs and the urban population grew by 1,58,39,848 core

In Telangana which was created in 2014, just a decade ago the overall population as per 2011 census is 3,50,03,674 crore. The rural population is 2,13,95,009 crore and the urban population is 1,36,08,665 crore, as per Telangana governments own annual economic survey report.

The above census data of all the five southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana reveals that while the rural population may not have grown appreciably, or has seen a decline in the case of Kerala, all the five states have seen a significant rise in urban population, thereby indicating rapid, strong urbanization

In fact there was no such decline seen in populations of Bihar and Madhya Pradesh between 1991 to 2011, even after Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand out of Bihar in 2000. Neither of the four northern India states showed any decline in their population, instead they have shown a steady growth.

At the core of this debate raised by some politicians and political parties is their concern that the Constituencies that they represent today may simply vanish into thin air, carved into altogether two new constituencies, or its present day geographical and administrative unit boundaries or structure may undergo drastic changes.

The various dictionary meanings of the word Constituency is as follows – “The district and the residents of a district who elect a legislator or an official.” “One of the official areas of a country that elects someone to represent it in a parliament or legislature:” “A body of citizens entitled to elect a representative (as to a legislative or executive position.”

Why we are quoting the dictionary meaning of the word Constituency here is that it has had a huge controversy attached to it in Maharashtra politics way back in March 2008.

Back then on March 28, 2008, the Maharashtra state legislature had sent the then chief election commissioner of the State Election Commission of Maharashtra (SECM), Nand Lal to two days of simple imprisonment for contempt of the house.

At the heart of the controversy was a two year old stand-off between Nand Lal and the then Congress led government over his assertion that the SECM was empowered to declare and hold elections to civic bodies as per the provisions of the Article 243K of the Constitution.

But the real axe to grind that the then Congress government in Maharashtra had with Nand Lal was over the delimitation of two constituencies of Malwan assembly constituency in Sindhudurg district of Konkan region and the other being Latur Lok Sabha constituency.

It was during one of the meeting of the state-level delimitation committee meetings of  which Nand Lal by virtue of being the election commissioner of the SECM was entertaining the plea of a then senior Congress minister and a former chief minister from Konkan region was vociferously arguing that Malwan was “his assembly constituency.”

To which Nand Lal putting his foot down firmly reminded the senior Congress minister that a constituency comprised off, or was made off the voters who are empowered by the constitution to elect their representative to the Lok Sabha or the Assembly and as such in reality belonged to the electorate.

Eventually in the readjustment process the erstwhile Malwan assembly constituency was split into two new assembly constituencies of Kankavli and Kudal. There was not much resentment over the issue.

However, the same thing did not happen in respect of the Latur Lok Sabha constituency. Nand Lal going by the proportion of the Schedule Caste (SC) population in the six assembly segments of the constituency decided to place the Lok Sabha constituency under SC reservation.

This did not go down well with another late, former Congress chief minister from Marathwada region who wanted the Latur Lok Sabha constituency to be kept under general category.

Nand Lal did not oblige. Later on his decision to call for civic body elections was like the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back. Citing that Nand Lal had committed a breach of privilege of the state legislature and sentenced him to two days of simple imprisonment. What was even worse was that a screaming Nand Lal was physically picked up from his SECM office and sent to the jail with none of his requests being entertained. The incident has left a bitter taste.

A major issue that has not been taken into consideration is the implementation of the 106^th Constitution Amendment Act 2023 that was passed in the parliament in September 2023. Called as the Womens Reservation Act, the law provides for one-third reservation in seats in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies for women. The law also applies to reserved SC and ST seats as well.

The law will be implemented from 2029 onwards. As per the provisions of the law in the first election after 2029, a total of 192 seats in the Lok Sabha shall be reserved for women, in the second general election 179 seats will be reserved for women and in the subsequent third election 175 seats in the Lok Sabha will be reserved for women representatives.

Another intertwined aspect that needs equally urgent attention is the need for Delimitation of Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies so as to ensure the ever growing needs and aspirations of the electorate.

The rapid pace of urbanization has meant that some Lok Sabha constituencies like Malkajgiri in Andhra Pradesh have an electoral population of 29, 53,915 lakh. Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh with 22,63,961 lakh voter population comes second. While, the Bangalore North Lok Sabha constituency in Karnataka with a voter population of 22,29,063 lakhs comes third in the list of top five largest Lok Sabha constituencies in terms of voters. The Unnao Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh comes fourth with a voter population of 21,10,388 lakhs,  and North-West Delhi in NCT of Delhi with a voter population of 20,93,922 lakhs.

While, the smallest Lok Sabha constituency in terms of number of voters is the union territory of Lakshadweep which has barely 47,972 voters. The other four smallest Lok Sabha constituencies in the country are as follows – Daman & Diu 1,02,260 lakh voters, Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir with 1,59,949 lakh voters, Dadra & Nagar Haveli with 1,88,783 lakh voters and Andaman & Nicobar Islands with 2,57,856 lakh voters coming distant fifth.

Let us not forget here that after the 1981 census there has been no proper census held across the country, be it  because of insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir in the 1990’s or the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. It would be 50 years by the time a new delimitation exercise would be carried out since the last delimitation of 1976. In effect adding close to three generations of 18 plus eligible voters to the electorate in 50 years.

In states like Himachal Pradesh and NCT of Delhi, given the topography, population density in years gone by, many current Lok Sabha constituencies comprise of almost 10 to 12 assembly segments. As against this, an average Lok Sabha constituency in Maharashtra comprises of six assembly segments.

A fresh census is due and quite critical in redrawing or rationalizing the geographical boundaries and demographic proportion of the electorate has to be determined so as to ensure a more balanced socio-economic development of a particular constituency or a region.

Furthermore, the Delimitation Commission will have to take into account the 2023 Womens Reservation Act and provide for one-third reservation for women in Parliament and State Assemblies from 2029 onwards.

For the delimitation to happen, first a census operation must be conducted. Both the Delimitation Commission of India and the Census Commissioner of India are constitutionally created bodies.

At the national-level it comprises of retired chief justice of the Supreme Court of India, Chief Election Commissioner – Election Commission of India (ECI), Registrar General of India, Surveyor General of India, officers from both the Central & State government’s (in respect of state-level committee’s), experts in geographical information and any other person to manage the office functions. The orders of the Delimitation Commission of India carries the force of the law and cannot be brought into question before any court of law in India.

Although DMK chief M K Stalin has called for a “Fair Delimitation” to happen, it is quite an open secret that considering the population growth there is bound to be some readjustment or rationalization of the existing constituencies is bound to happen in some bigger states. But taking into account the overall population growth across the country, the Delimitation Commission will have its task cut out in ensuring that there is equitable rationalization of constituencies based on the fresh census after 2026.