Except for the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Musilmeen (AIMIM), the rest of the political parties appear to be facing grim electoral prospects in a scarcity hit Marathwada region of the state. Going by the negative difference in the victory margins of 2009 and 2014 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena, Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Independents are likely to face bleak electoral prospects in the 2019 assembly elections.
While rest of the state grappled with floods, Marathwada yet again faced acute water scarcity, could that spell a disaster for the ruling BJP-Sena on October 21?, only results on October 24 will reveal that. Another factor that is worrying for everyone else is the performance of the MIM in the 2014 assembly and in the recent 2019 Lok Sabha elections where it stunned the Sena by wresting its Aurangabad seat.
Prominent amongst the sitting MLAs whose assembly seats are in danger include – Ameeta Ashok Chavan (Bhokar), Amit Deshmukh (Latur City) and D P Sawant (Nanded North) – both Congress, Madhusudan Kendre (NCP – Gangakhed), Jaiprakash Mundada (Basmath), Arjun Khotkar (Jalana), Jayduttaji Kshirsagar (Beed) – all Shiv Sena, Assembly Speaker Haribhau Bagade (Phulambri), Minister for Women and Child Development, Pankaja Munde (Parli) and Rana Jagjitsinha Patil (Osmanabad) – all BJP.
Out of these Jayduttaji Kshirsagar (Beed) and Rana Jagjitsinha Patil (Osmanabad), both left the NCP and hopped on to Sena and BJP bandwagons respectively. Both the seats could go either way given the fact that both face a negative difference in victory margins. It will be an uphill task for Kshirsagar, Patil and the NCP to retain the seat, and for the BJP-Sena to wrest these two seat’s from the NCP. One can also expect a similar contest between the Congress and the Sena over the Sillod seat, with sitting Congress MLA Abdul Sattar Abdul Nabi quitting the party and joining the Sena.
Although there are just 46 assembly seat’s in Marathwada region, in the 2014 assembly elections the BJP had dominated the region winning 15 seats, Sena 11, Congress 9, NCP 8, MIM 1 and Independent’s 2. The 2009 assembly election results was a complete contrast with Congress dominating by winning 18 seats, NCP 12, Sena 7, Independent’s 5, BJP 2, MNS and RSPS 1 each. The BJP has had its pocket boroughs of influence in Jalana, Aurangabad, Beed, Sena in Nanded and Aurangabad, Congress in Nanded and Latur, NCP in Parbhani and Osmanabad and Independent’s holding sway in Pathri, Ahmadpur and Aurangabad.
Out of the 15 seats the BJP won in 2014, the BJP is in danger of losing 10 seats – Partur, Badnapur (SC), Bhokardan, Phulambri, Aurangabad East, Gangapur, Ashti, Kaij (SC), Parli and Udgir (SC). The rest of the 5 seats – Mukhed, Hingoli, Georai, Majalgaon and Nilanga can be considered as safe seats for the BJP. Out of the 10 seats that are in danger zone, the BJP will have to toil very hard to retain – Badnapur (SC), Bhokardan, Phulambri, Gangapur, Udgir (SC) and Osmanabad (wrest from the NCP).
Second biggest looser could well be the Congress, as it is in danger of losing 8 out of 9 seats it won in 2014 polls. The Congress is in danger of losing – Bhokar, Nanded North, Naigaon, Kalamnuri, Sillod, Latur Rural, Latur City and Ausa. The only safe seat for the Congress appears to be the Tuljapur seat. Out of the 8 seats, the Congress is in danger of losing, it will have to really work hard to retain – Naigaon, Kalamnuri and Ausa seat’s.
The Shiv Sena which had won 11 seats in 2014, could well be in danger of losing 8 of them – Hadgaon, Nanded South, Degloor (SC), Basmath, Parbhani, Jalana, Kannad and Aurangabad (SC) . The rest of the three seat’s – Loha, Paithan and Umarga (SC) can be considered as safe seats for the Sena. Out of the 8 seats, the Sena will have to sweat it out to retain 5 seats – Degloor (SC), Basmath, Parbhani, Kannad and Aurangabad West (SC). Besides this the Sena has an arduous task of wresting the Sillod and Beed seats from the Congress and NCP respectively.
The NCP too stares at the danger of losing 6 of the 8 seat’s it had won in 2014 assembly elections, which include – Kinwat, Gangakhed, Vaijapur, Beed, Osmanabad and Paranda. The Ghansawangi and Jintur are probably the only two safe seats for the NCP at the moment. Whereas, it will have to slug it out to retain all the 6 seats that it is in danger of losing in the region, in this 2019 assembly elections.
Both the Independent’s – Mohan Fad (Pathri) and Vinayakrao Patil (Ahmadpur) are in danger of losing their respective seats as they have a negative difference in victory margins. It is only the MIM that seems to be without any worries at the moment. The only seat – Aurangabad Central, which was won by Imtiaz Jaleel in 2014, is its lone and only safe seat in Marathwada region. This time in 2019, the MIM will be without the support of the Prakash Ambedkar led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), making it that much difficult for the MIM to win more seats in Marathwada region.
