BJP in danger of losing half of its seat share in Vidarbha region, its traditional stronghold

Mumbai: If the election data analysis of Western Maharashtra was anything to go by, the comparison between the 2009 and 2014 victory margins and its difference paints yet another grim picture for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Vidarbha region. In the 2014 assembly elections, out of the total 62 assembly seats the BJP had won 44 seats. This time the comparative data in terms of negative or reduced difference in victory margins has meant that the BJP is in danger of losing at least 22 assembly seats out of the 44 seats it had won in 2014 polls. In the 2019 elections the single biggest looser could well might be the BJP, followed by the Congress and the Shiv Sena.

Many political heavyweights like BJP minister Dr Sanjay Kute (Jalgaon-Jamod), Independent MLA Ravi Rana (Badnera), Independent MLA Bacchu Kadu (Achalpur), ex-BJP MLA, now in Congress Dr Ashish Deshmukh (Katol), BJP minister of state Madan Yerawar (Yavatmal), Yashomati Thakur (Teosa) and Gopaldas Agarwal (Gondia), both Congress and BBM MLA Baliram Siraskar (Balapur) are in the danger of losing their seat in the ensuing assembly elections on October 21.

The mass entry of rank outsiders who have nothing to do with the core ideology of the party has unnerved even the otherwise quiet cadres of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJPs parent body which has its headquarters in Nagpur. Even the BJPs dedicated cadres are feeling uneasy at the migrant leaders occupying plum postings and sermonizing cadres like them on party ideology and dedication. Faulty implementation of the farm loan waiver scheme, scanty rainfall and continuing farmers suicides due to farm distress are some of the frown lines on the BJPs forehead.

In the 2014 assembly elections the BJP swept Vidarbha region winning 44 seats, Congress somehow managed to retain semblance of its hold in the region, winning 10 seats. Shiv Sena won four seats, the NCP won 1 seat, Prakash Ambedkar’s BBM retained its Akola East seat, and two Independent MLAs – Ravi Rana and Bacchu Kadu retained their Badnera and Achalpur seats. In contrast, in the 2009 assembly polls, it was the Congress which had swept Vidarbha region winning 24 seats, followed by BJP which won 19 seats, Sena 8 seats, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won 4 seats, BBM 1 seat and 6 Independent’s had also won.

Bulk of the 44 assembly seats that the BJP won in 2014 came from the 6 district’s of Amravati, Bhandara, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Gondia and Yavatmal. While the Congress and Sena won most of their assembly seats from Buldhana district. In contrast, in the 2009 assembly elections, the Congress won bulk of its 24 seats from Amravati and Yavatmal district’s. While the BJP won most of its 19 seats from Nagpur district, the 6 Independent’s won mostly from Amravati district.

Out of the 44 seats the BJP won in the 2014 elections, half of them – 22 seats are those which the BJP is in danger of losing in 2019 elections, due to reduced and negative or deficit difference in victory margins. These include – Jalgaon-Jamod, Katol, Yavatmal, Melghat. Kamptee, Ramtek, Akola East, Murtizapur, Washim (SC), Karanja, Daryapur (SC), Wardha, Khamgaon, Nagpur North (SC), Bhandara (SC), Sakoli, Aheri (ST), Rajura, Chimur, Wani, Ralegaon (ST) and Arni (ST).

What is equally interesting to note here is that as many as 22 seats can be considered as safe seats for the BJP. These include – Malkapur, Akot, Akola West, Amravati, Morshi, Hinganghat, Hingana, Umred (SC), Nagpur South West, Nagpur South, Nagpur East, Nagpur Central, Nagpur West, Tumsar, Arjuni-Morgaon (SC), Tirora, Amgaon (ST), Armori (ST), Gadchiroli (ST), Chandrapur (SC), Ballarpur and Umarkhed (SC).

Out of the 22 seats that the BJP is in danger of losing – 13 seats are such where it will have to sweat it out to retain them. These include – Khamgaon, Jalgaon-Jamod, Murtizapur, Daryapur (SC), Melghat, Wardha, Kamptee, Ramtek, Armori (ST), Aheri (ST), Chimur, Wani and Ralegaon (ST).

The Shiv Sena could be the other party to suffer the biggest upset in Vidarbha, a region which it rarely has performed well thanks to its anti-statehood stance. Out of the 4 seats it had won in 2014, the Sena is in danger of losing at least 3 seats – Mehkar (SC), Warora, Sindhkhed Raja. Digras assembly seat can only be considered as the only safe seat for the Sena. Again out of the 3 seats that are in the danger zone, the Sena will have to work hard to retain Sindhkhed Raja and Warora.

Second biggest loser in this election could well be the Congress. Out of the 10 seats it had won in 2014, the Congress is in danger of losing 9 seats – Buldhana, Dhamangaon Railway, Teosa, Arvi, Deoli, Saoner, Gondia, Bramhapuri and Chikhali. The only safe seat for the Congress appears to be the Risod assembly seat. The Congress will have to really work hard to retain Buldhana, Teosa, Saoner and Bramhapuri seats.

The NCP which won just one assembly seat of Pusad in the 2014 elections, is in no danger of losing the seat, unless and until its sitting MLA Manohar Naik decides to quit the party and join either the BJP or Sena. The Prakash Ambedkar led BBM is in danger or losing its only Balapur seat. While, both the Independent MLA’s Ravi Rana (Badnera) and Bacchu Kadu (Achalpur) are also in danger or losing their respective assembly seats.