September 3 RS bypolls most likely to be held unopposed, unless NDA or INDI Alliance think otherwise

X: @prashanthamine

New Delhi: The September 3 byelection to 12 Rajya Sabha seats from 9 states that fell vacant recently due to 10 sitting members getting elected to the Lok Sabha in June this year, and two members having resigned, is most likely to be held unopposed. Out of the 12 seats, seven seats are held by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), two by the Congress, one each by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Bharath Rashtra Samiti (BRS) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

State-wise break-up and date of retirement of the 12 sitting Rajya Sabha members who have recently resigned is as follows:

The 10 Rajya Sabha members who were elected to the Lok Sabha in June this year include – Kamakhya Prasad Tasa (term ending June 2025) and Sarbananda Sonowal (term ending April 2026), both from BJP and Assam. Misha Bharti – RJD – July 2028 and Vivek Thakur – BJP – April 2026, both from Bihar. Deepender Singh Hooda – Congress – Haryana – April 2026. Jyotiraditya M Scindia – BJP – Madhya Pradesh – June 2026.

Chhatrapati Udayan Raje Bhosale – April 2026 and Union Minister Piyush Goyal – July 2028, both from Maharashtra and also from BJP. AICC General Secretary K C Venugopal – Rajasthan – June 2026. Biplab Kumar Deb – Tripura – BJP – April 2028.

The two Rajya Sabha members who resigned from their membership include – Dr K Keshava Rao – Telangana – BRS – April 2026, and Mamata Mohanta – BJD – Odisha and her term of membership was to expire in April 26.

As per the byelection schedule announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) here on Wednesday, the notification for the byelection will be issued on August 14, last date for making nomination is August 21. Scrutiny of nomination papers will be taken up on August 22.

As for the last date of withdrawal of nomination papers for the vacancies in Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura and Maharashtra is August 26. Whereas, the last date of withdrawal of nomination papers for the vacancies in Bihar, Haryana, Rajasthan, Telangana and Odisha will be August 27.

Polling will be held on September 3 and counting of votes will be taken up in the evening of the same day. The polling will be held by open ballot, with the MLAs having to display their voting preferences to their party election agents.

Much of the fate of this byelection depends upon whether the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress led opposition INDI Alliance decide to contest these byelections or let the candidates get elected unopposed.

The ruling BJP led NDA alliance can comfortably get all its 7 candidates elected given its numerical strength in states like Assam, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tripura. The BJP if it wants to can force a contest on the Congress in Haryana and Rajasthan and Bihar if it can split the Congress and RJD votes.

Likewise, the Congress is in a comfortable position in Telangana and can wrest the Rajya Sabha seat from BRS after recently splitting the party. In Odisha too the BJP if it wants to can wrest the Rajya Sabha seat held by the BJD.

With the numbers game heavily weighing in on the ruling BJP in the Parliament and currently is falling short by some seats for getting absolute majority in the upper house, it depends on whether the BJP will force a contest in Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar and Odisha. The BJP led NDA needs to attain working majority of 123 members in a house of 245 members to get important pieces of legislation passed.