Mumbai: While the Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2025-26, tabled in the Legislature ahead of the state budget, projects a strong growth outlook for the state economy, a closer reading of the document reveals several structural concerns that could shape fiscal policy in the coming years.
The survey estimates that Maharashtra’s economy will grow by 7.9% in 2025-26, with the nominal Gross State Domestic Product expected to reach ₹51,00,597 crore. However, behind these headline numbers, the report also points to several underlying economic challenges.
Here are five warning signals emerging from the Economic Survey.
1. Economic growth is slowing from post-COVID highs
The survey projects 7.9% growth for 2025-26, which appears strong at first glance.
But the long-term growth chart included in the report shows that the state experienced much higher growth immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic recovery phase.
Growth crossed double digits in 2021-22 and 2022-23, when economic activity rebounded sharply.
Since then, growth has gradually moderated, suggesting that the post-pandemic expansion phase is stabilising.
For policymakers, this means that future revenue growth may not rise as rapidly as in the immediate recovery years.
Also Read: Explained | Maharashtra Economy Set to Grow 7.9% as State Size Crosses ₹51 Lakh Crore: Economic Survey
2. Agriculture continues to lag behind other sectors
The survey projects agriculture and allied sector growth at 3.4%, significantly lower than other sectors.
In comparison:
- Industry: 5.7%
- Services: 9.0%
This gap highlights the structural imbalance in Maharashtra’s economy, where urban sectors grow rapidly while rural income growth remains slower.
Given that a large portion of the state’s population still depends on agriculture, slower farm-sector growth can affect rural demand and income stability.
3. Heavy dependence on the services sector
The survey confirms that the services sector remains the dominant contributor to Maharashtra’s economy, accounting for the largest share of Gross State Domestic Product.
While this reflects the strength of cities such as Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Nagpur, it also means the state economy is highly dependent on urban economic activity.
This concentration increases vulnerability to fluctuations in sectors such as finance, real estate, trade and services.
A slowdown in urban economic activity can therefore have a disproportionate impact on overall growth.
4. Industrial growth remains moderate
The Economic Survey projects industrial sector growth of 5.7%, which is moderate compared with the services sector.
Despite large investments in industrial corridors, infrastructure and manufacturing clusters, the pace of industrial expansion has not matched the rapid growth of services.
For a state positioning itself as a major manufacturing hub, this trend may raise questions about the pace of industrial investment and job creation.
Also Read: Explained | 10 Budget Clues Hidden Inside Maharashtra’s Economic Survey
5. Growth driven largely by infrastructure spending
The survey repeatedly highlights the role of large infrastructure investments in sustaining economic momentum.
Projects involving roads, metro systems, logistics networks, ports and airports are cited as key drivers of economic activity.
While infrastructure investment supports growth, it also requires significant public expenditure and borrowing.
Economists often examine whether such spending generates sufficient long-term economic returns to sustain fiscal stability.
What This Means for the Budget
The Economic Survey provides the economic context for the Maharashtra Budget 2026-27, which will be presented in the Legislative Assembly on 6 March.
The data in the report suggests that the government will need to balance several priorities:
• sustaining economic growth
• strengthening industrial expansion
• supporting rural income and agriculture
• managing fiscal resources amid rising infrastructure spending
While the survey presents a broadly positive picture of the state economy, these structural issues may influence the government’s fiscal strategy in the coming budget.
