Going by the 2014 Assembly verdict, upbeat BJP in no mood to accede to Sena demands

Mumbai: After having stomped over and buried once and for all the “big brother, small brother” debate in the 2014 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be in no mood to let go the upper hand it has now. Sources in the BJP disclosed that the top brass has not taken Shiv Sena red-flagging big ticket infrastructure projects like Jaitapur, Nanar, Bullet Train or the more recent Mumbai Metro 3 line car shed project. For a party which has had to beseech the Sena for increasing its quota of seats, is in no mood to grant more than 120 assembly seats to the Sena, sources added.

In the run up to the recent 2019 Lok Sabha elections the Sena had made the mega oil refinery project at Nanar a prestige issue. Before that it was the mega nuclear power project at Jaitapur. Now, Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has backed his son, Yuva Sena president Aditya Thackeray and even warned Nanar like fate shall befall on the Mumbai Metro line 3 car shed at Aarey Milk Colony.

Ever since the two saffron allies contested the Assembly elections together as allies in 1995, the BJP had always been left playing the second fiddle to the Sena. The 2004 words of late Pramod Mahajan, the architect of the saffron alliance with late Sena chief Bal Thackeray, that by the end of the decade the BJP will assume power on its own, must have been brushed aside by the Sena leadership. In 2014, the BJP almost came within striking distance of achieving that target.

Statistical records of assembly elections since 1995 show that the high point in BJPs performance in assembly elections in Maharashtra was in the inaugural year of 1995 itself when it won 65 seats, polling 12.80 percent votes while contesting 116 seats allocated to it by the Sena. In 1999 polls, the BJP contested 117 seats, won 56 seats, polling 14.54 percent votes. In 2004 assembly elections, the BJP contested 111 seats, won 54 of them with a polling percentage of 13.67 percent of votes.

In 2009, the BJP contested 119 seats, won 46 seats (two more than the Sena) and managed to secure 14.02 percent vote share. But all that changed in 2014 Assembly elections as the two saffron allies snapped their two decade old electoral ties. In the 2014 polls, the BJP contested 260 assembly seats, and won 122 seats, managing to poll 27.81 percent of vote share. As against this the Sena which contested 282 assembly seats won 63 seats and managed to secure a voting percentage of 19.35 percent.

For the BJP which barely managed to contest 111 to 119 assembly seats, winning anywhere between 46 to 65 seats and a vote share that ranged between 12.80 percent and 14.02 percent, the 2014 elections proved to be a turning point. According to some critics the turn-around for the BJP seems to have started in the 2009 elections when despite contesting less number of seats it managed to win 46 seats as against 44 seats of the Sena. But that was an election in which the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) had seriously dented Senas prospects. However, in the 2014 elections the MNS factor was a not a challenge for the Sena.

The Sena on the other hand, the high point of its electoral performance like the BJP was in the 1995 polls when it contested 169 seats, won 73 seats, securing 16.39 percent votes. In 1999 polls, the Sena contested 161 seats, won 69 seats, securing 17.33 percent votes. In the 2004 polls, the Sena again contested 169 seats, won 62 seats and secured 19.97 percent votes. In the 2009 polls, the Sena had contested 160 seats, won 44 seats and secured 16.26 percent votes. For the Sena too despite contesting 169 to 282 seats, winning 44 to 73 seats, its vote share has consistently hovered anywhere between 16.26 percent and 19.97 percent vote share.

The Sena has never been able to break that barrier of 73 seats and the vote share of 19.97 percent. The question is also as to whether the BJP can maintain its winning streak on its own or whether it will still have to depend on the Sena for support. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has already announced that he will return back as the next chief minister. He has also been dismissive of the Sena challenge arguing that his real challenger is the Prakash Ambedkar led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). In a months time from now Maharashtra will know who holds water in his claims.