Bangladesh Elections: Implications, Geopolitics, and India’s Stance

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Bangladesh’s 12th general elections culminated recently with one of the lowest voter turnouts in the country’s history, attributed largely to the opposition Bangladesh National Party’s (BNP) decision to boycott the polls. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s refusal to establish a neutral caretaker government, as demanded by the BNP, set the stage for this anticipated outcome.

With expectations of Prime Minister Hasina’s Awami League (AL) clinching a fourth consecutive term and a fifth overall, India’s interests have been a focal point. Hasina’s administration has historically maintained a strong alliance with India, amplifying New Delhi’s support for her continued leadership. Conversely, the BNP, led by Khaleda Zia, is viewed unfavorably by India, with some quarters considering her alignment as pro-Pakistan.

Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, a Distinguished Fellow at the Gateway House, highlighted the significance of Hasina’s re-election for India, stressing the two countries’ cooperative relationship and mutual respect for each other’s concerns over the past decade.

Geopolitically, Bangladesh’s strategic location neighboring multiple Indian states raises significant security implications. Previous periods under military rule or BNP governance witnessed instances of providing refuge to separatists and insurgents from India, alongside serving as a base for Islamist operations within India’s borders.

Notably, during Hasina’s tenure, cooperation between Indian and Bangladeshi agencies increased, leading to collaborative efforts to curb anti-India activities. The BNP’s rule, known for its ties with Pakistan’s ISI and the Jamaat-e-Islami, facilitated a free reign for anti-India elements, resulting in various terrorist activities across Indian territories.

Groups like Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) have orchestrated attacks within Bangladesh and across the border in India, leading to concerns about cross-border security. Hasina’s government’s robust approach helped control some Islamist and anti-India factions, minimizing instances of terrorist violence.

However, the geopolitical landscape extends beyond India-Bangladesh relations. China’s growing involvement in Bangladesh, especially through massive investments in infrastructure and defense, poses challenges for India. Dhaka’s strategic ties with Beijing, marked by extensive economic collaboration and military procurement, have raised eyebrows in New Delhi.

Despite Bangladesh’s economic progress, recent challenges such as inflation, fuel shortages, and dwindling foreign reserves, leading to IMF involvement, have stirred internal discontent. The absence of a strong opposition, with the BNP sitting out the elections, likely secures Hasina’s re-election, keeping the China-Pakistan influence at bay, at least for the time being.

As Bangladesh navigates these complexities, its alignment and policies will continue to impact regional geopolitics, especially concerning the dynamics between India, China, and Pakistan. The outcome of these elections shapes not only Bangladesh’s future but also bears significant implications for the broader South Asian geopolitical landscape.

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