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Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala is headed for a photo finish in the state assembly polls even as most pre-poll surveys predict that the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist), (CPI-M) -controlled Left Democratic Front (LDF) is set to cinch a record-breaking back-to-back victory over the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
With the campaign for the April 6 voting reaching its final phase, signals emanating from the battle ground around the state indicate that the UDF is fast closing the yawning gap over the principal adversary that marked the initial rounds.
The BJP, the self-proclaimed third pillar in the state ruled alternately by the LDF and the UDF, is unlikely to pull off a miracle this time also as its candidates are struggling to make their presence felt in a majority of 140 seats up for grab.
The electioneering had got off with the LDF, under the unchallenged ‘captaincy’ of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, hitting the pitch as a formidable team. Never before in the electoral history of Kerala, an incumbent coalition had conveyed the impression of being an unbeatable side after ruling for five years.
Well before the formal declaration of the poll schedule, it had cranked up the campaign machinery. There is no dearth of human and financial resources. But for a few irritants here and there, seat-sharing among the partners was hassle-free with the big brother CPI(M) calling all shots.
In sharp contrast, the UDF was in total disarray, with its clueless leaders finding it hard to hide their nervousness. Congress, the leader of the coalition, was rudderless and adrift. The internecine fight over ticket allocation was openly played out, and the party commanded little respect from and authority over the partners. Functionaries down the rung in many places either left the party or threatened to leave for being denied tickets. It was a virtual free for all until a few days ago.
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The situation, however, has begun to change for the better as the election date is closing in. The UDF campaign has picked up with the demoralized cadres being motivated and charged. A sense of optimism is palpable in the UDF camp with the feeling growing strong that all is not still lost.
The UDF strategists claim that the coalition has come to power in the state alternately not merely on its organizational strength, as is the case with the Left. They argue that at least 30 per cent of the electorate in Kerala is politically ‘unaffiliated ‘or ‘unsubscribed’, if not entirely apolitical. This section that ultimately decides the outcome of an election mostly tends to go against the incumbent. This time around, despite the LDF raising a big challenge, the UDF could romp home with the support of this segment.
Though the Congress in Kerala suffers from organizational debilities and weak stewardship, it is still not a pushover. The party boasts of a strong cadre base in every nook and cranny of the state. If the leaders could motivate and mobilize these dedicated grassroot workers, the party could still mount a creditable challenge to the LDF. Also, the UDF’s second largest partner Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is a force to reckon with in its strongholds in north Kerala, and is capable of substantially adding up to the tally of the front.
Another factor on which the UDF leaders are pinning hope is regaining the support it had lost to the BJP in the recent civic polls. They agree that a section of the UDF’s traditional supporters, especially from the Congress, have become sympathetic to the BJP. They, however, continue to be out-and-out anti-LDF. They know that if they vote for the BJP, they would be indirectly helping the LDF to secure a fresh mandate. So, at the end of the day, a good chunk of this segment would endorse the UDF contestants to stop the LDF in its track.
The LDF leaders, however, laugh off the UDF’s last-lap enthusiasm, dubbing their reasoning suggesting a neck-and-neck race as mere wishful thinking. Holding that they are not carried away by the opinion polls that forecast a comfortable win for the LDF, its leaders say that their confidence is based on the government’s performance on development and welfare fronts in the last five years. Significantly, the coalition has pushed under the carpet contentious topics like Sabarimala temple women entry issue, giving greater focus to its twin themes of development and welfare.
(The author N Muraleedharan is senior and retired journalists from PTI and political analyst based in Kerala)
