Defeat in assembly polls to reshape Kerala CPI(M)

Thiruvananthapuram: If the political trendline set by the local body polls persists in Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPI(M) is bound to lose the assembly polls due in a couple of months.

More than loss of power, such a scenario is fraught with serious internal and external consequences for the CPI(M), the vanguard of the LDF.

The Congress-led UDF put up a stellar performance in the mid-December civic polls, dealing a crushing blow to the LDF, which has been in power for a decade under the strong leadership of CPI(M) stalwart Pinarayi Vijayan.

Apart from losing control of the vast majority of civic bodies, the outcome has shattered the morale of CPI(M) cadres across the state.

Kerala is the sole Indian state where the Left is in power. For all practical purposes, the CPI(M) is the only party that counts in the coalition. Though the LDF consists of the CPI and a few other highly localised components, they don’t count much politically and organisationally.

As per projections based on the local elections, the UDF is likely to cross a tally of 80 seats in the 140-member legislature.

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The party leadership is yet to reconcile with the drubbing it received at the grassroots and come out with workable strategies to reverse the trend within the limited time-frame at hand.

The CPI(M) Central Committee (CC), the party’s topmost national decision-making body, held a meeting in the state capital this weekend to look into the reasons for the defeat and direct the state unit on how to confront the headwinds.

The CC meeting, however, failed to come out with any pragmatic programme to reverse the political trend.

The party’s state unit has launched a door-to-door campaign, pleading with the electorate not to be carried away by the ‘false narrative’ of the rival coalition. In a change of tack, the party’s comrades drafted for grassroots outreach have been directed to be extremely polite while meeting voters at their homes. This submissive posture itself reflects that the party is on the defensive.

West Bengal fate unlikely, leadership crisis yes

Given Kerala’s political bipolarity, a defeat in the assembly polls is unlikely to mark the sunset of the CPI(M) in Kerala, as happened in West Bengal. After ruling for 34 years, the party was virtually wiped out there in 2011, with no prospect of a comeback.

In Kerala, where the polity is largely divided between the UDF and the LDF, the CPI(M) is unlikely to face a complete washout. The party would continue to be an alternative so long as the BJP stagnates as a distant third.

Going by the state’s socio-political and demographic features, the BJP’s emergence as a strong third alternative is not on the cards any time in the near future.

An electoral blow, however, could push the CPI(M) into its worst leadership crisis.

For over two decades, the party in Kerala has been firmly under the control of Pinarayi Vijayan, referred to as ‘captain’ by the cadres. After he became chief minister in 2016, both the party and the government have been in his firm grip. This has been an unusual phenomenon in the party’s history, where the government, whenever it was in power, was largely guided by the party’s state apparatus. This was true even when ministries were headed by veterans like EMS Namboodiripad, E K Nayanar and V S Achuthanandan.

Significantly, the CPI(M) has made it amply clear that Vijayan will be the captain of the LDF in the ensuing polls as well.

An electoral defeat would mean a crushing personal setback for the 80-year-old Vijayan. Such an event would force him to quietly retire, either voluntarily or under compulsion. Also, age and health are not in his favour to fight back and retain captaincy and chart the future course of the party as he wishes.

All the same, the vacuum left by Vijayan wouldn’t be easy to fill. As things stand, next in the organisational hierarchy is state secretary M V Govindan, a political lightweight who has proved incompetent since his elevation a few years back.

This would mean the party is heading towards massive internal churning, with a set of second-tier functionaries asserting themselves. This line-up could include those critical of the way the party and government functioned over the decade, especially during the second tenure of the Vijayan government.

To be a less virulent opposition

Since its formation in 1964 following the split in the undivided Communist Party of India, the CPI(M) has more often than not been destined to function as the opposition in the state. In that role, the party demonstrated its most virulent posture, taking on governments lethally, both inside and outside the assembly.

But in changed socio-political circumstances, it is a moot question whether the party would be able to organise the same degree of demonstrative power. This is especially so since Gen Z is less enthusiastic about hitting the streets under scorching sun or drenching rain. Rather, the new generation would reserve its firepower for digital platforms.

This would oblige the emerging leadership to shape new forms of resistance instead of treading the beaten path.