Political Turbulence Ahead!

@prashanthamine

Mumbai: With the Election Commission of India (ECI) issuing orders regarding transfer of officials in mid-2021 four poll bound states and union territory on December 18, 2020 itself, it is one signal for the Political Turbulence Ahead! Because the poll bound states include – Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Union Territory of Puducherry.

The ECI issued the orders almost six months ahead of the assembly elections regarding transfer of officials who have completed three years in one posting, are posted in their home district or who are facing any probes.

Already the Centers orders on deputation of three Indian Police Service (IPS) officers from West Bengal has created a storm in West Bengal and is heading for a showdown between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Center and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

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If that is not enough the ongoing visit of Union Home Minister Amit Shah has only flared the tensions further. It looks like the ECI might have to step in much sooner than it is allowed to, to ensure a level playing and a peaceful field remains till the elections are held.

Five state assemblies – 234 member Tamil Nadu assembly (May 24), 294 member West Bengal assembly (May 30), 126 member Assam assembly (May 31), 140 member Kerala assembly (June 1) and 30 member Puducherry assembly (June 8) are to go to polls in May-June 2021.

In the five state’s – Tamil Nadu is ruled by AIADMK, Kerala by the Left Democratic Front (LDF), West Bengal by Trinamool Congress (TMC), Puducherry by Congress and Assam by the BJP.

Already the tremors are being felt in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal. The showdown between the BJP and the LDF and TMC in Kerala and West Bengal has already begun to shoot up the political temperatures.

As the assembly elections draw ever closer, sparks and violent skirmishes are expected to be more than just a mere norm. Already it is visible in West Bengal where the convoy of BJP president J P Nadda was recently attacked. There have been similar violent attacks and skirmishes between BJP and TMC supporters in the last one year alone. Now with TMC MLAs jumping on to the BJP bandwagon, critics argue the face-off between the two is more likely to be less than peaceful.

Another state that is expected to witness similar heated political exchanges is in Communist Party of India (Marxist) – CPI-M led LDF ruled Kerala. The state in recent times is no stranger to witnessing often bloody clashes between the LDF and the BJP supporters.

What has raised eyebrows and one that could further escalate the political tensions are the recent municipal body election results to Grama Panchayats, Block, District, Municipal Council and Municipal Corporations across Kerala. Although the CPI-M led LDF retained its numero uno position in the state, followed by its traditional arch rival the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF).

But what has grabbed the eyeballs is the improvement in the electoral performance of the BJP in these civic polls in Kerala. It was almost a close contest between the LDF which secured 37.36% vote share against the 37.23% vote share of the UDF. The BJP may have secured just 13.28% vote share, but it did manage to grab power in Palakkad and Pandalam municipal councils.

The BJP made its presence felt in the LDF dominated Kannur district and turned out eye-catching performances in civic bodies in Vankala, Attingal, Parthanamthitta and Kannur districts. The party won a total of 1,596 seats – 1,181 seats in Grama Panchayats, 37 seats in Block development bodies, 2 seats in District bodies (Zilla Parishads), 317 seats in Municipal Councils and 59 seats in Municipal Corporations in Kerala.

It came second to the winner in almost 500 seats in these civic polls. The BJP may not be able to create any major upset in the Kerala assembly elections in 2021. But what it has done is that it has queered the political pitch of Kerala somewhat from a bipolar contest between the LDF and the UDF, to a triangular contest with it being the third option.

But a more interesting political and electoral battle is unfolding in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. Where the two traditional rivals the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) are now set to face two new challenges in the form of southern superstar Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and superstar Rajnikanth’s probable party Makkal Sevai Katchi (MSK).

Here in Tamil Nadu the BJP might well be keen to dump its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner the AIADMK in favour of Rajnikanth’s MSK. But it is equally not sure as to how the MSK performs in its electoral battle with MNM and in a multi-cornered contest. The BJP must be pinning all its hopes on a division of votes in a multi-cornered contest or in a direct contest between the MSK and MNM and the AIADMK and the DMK, to make inroads in the southern state where it has had not much of a political presence.

The cascading effect of the elections in Tamil Nadu and Kerala could be felt in the assembly elections to the Congress ruled Union Territory of Puducherry. Whosoever becomes the next Congress president, the election is most certain to have an impact in both the southern states.

More so in Kerala, as Rahul Gandhi represents the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala. At the Assembly election level, the ruling LDF will certainly not be lending a generous helping hand to the Congress at the expense of power in the state. Another factor that could have a bearing on the election outcome in Kerala is the on-going probe in the Gold smuggling case.

While the BJP has everything to gain for in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Puducherry and Kerala, it has everything at stake in Assam where it is currently in power. It will be one state where the implementation of the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) will be put to test.

It is not without any rhyme or reason that the present agitation of farmers from Punjab and Haryana over the three contentious farm bills passed by the Center has been allowed to drag on for days now. Because, the farmers agitation is likely to have some impact on the electoral outcome in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam, excluding Puducherry.

West Bengal is the number one producer of Rice in the country and one of the producers of Jute along with neighbouring state of Assam. Tamil Nadu is the third largest producer of Groundnut in the country. Whereas, Kerala is one of the leading states when it comes to production of Rice, Sugarcane, Spices and Coconut.

Gauging from the high stakes involved in the four states and the union territory that go to polls in mid-2021, it is pretty much clear that turbulent times lie ahead not just for these states, but also for the rest of the country. The prolonged agitations, stand-offs over issues and projects are sending out very wrong and bad signals to the outside world. And it does appear that no one is in the mood right now to listen to any voice of sanity even if their actions are causing any damage to the economy.