Thiruvananthapuram: After managing the COVID-19 outbreak appreciably well in its initial phases on strength of its time-tested public health care system, Kerala is fast heading to the much-feared community transmission stage. The flare-up is manifested in the form of critical clusters along the coastal belt in the state capital, forcing the government to wake up to reality from the web of delusion created by the pandemic managers that Kerala had set a model for the rest of the country in tackling one of history’s severest health disasters.
The number of single-day positive cases mounted to 791 as on July 17, from 151 at the turn of the month. Making matters worse, more than half of these cases are infection through contact, with the source of infection remaining untraceable in most cases.
In February- April, the Government had gloated in pride as the daily caseload remained less than 50, while the infection kept soaring uncontrollably in other seriously affected parts of the country. The fatality rate too was far below the national and global average. The state had geared up its public health infrastructure to full capacity to deal with the situation. In his daily press briefings on those days, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was confidence personified. The state’s pandemic containment and mitigation regime was well set on its trajectory to flatter the pandemic curve and won effusive praises in Indian and foreign media.
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With things abruptly turning critical, the Government is compelled to introspect what has gone wrong, and recalibrate the procedures and protocols. Critics say alarm bells rang long before, ignoring which the authorities chose to sleep on the laurels it won.
The adverse signals started emanating with the influx of Keralites from abroad and other parts of the state. The state had lobbied intensely with the Centre to make arrangements for the repatriation of the Non-resident Keralites, especially those in the Gulf countries. In the beginning, the government promised that thorough arrangements would be made for the mandatory quarantine of the returnees on its own. It, however, had to backtrack on that as the arrivals far exceeded its own estimates. This led to home quarantining of majority of returnees, resulting in an uptick in infections through direct contact.
As the virus respects no man-made boundaries, experts fear there is a distinct possibility of it leaping out of the containment zones. Such a scenario could be extremely serious for a state with a high density of population and where the urban-rural divide overlaps. Things could be still worse with the monsoon becoming vigorous, after the current lull. Such a situation could result in the public health care system crashing due to unmanageable surge in infections.
The emerging scenario, which also has serious socio-economic consequences, seems to have upset the anticipations of the Government, that it was well on its course to script history by ably managing the pandemic.
Obviously, the ruling LDF had entertained hopes that it would be able to reap handsome political benefits by steering the state clear of an unprecedented crisis, as the state assembly polls are due in May next year. But the unfolding situation bodes that things are not going to be rosy for the ruling combine. Also, this grim public health crisis would not have come at a worse time than when the Government is faced with an unpleasant situation with the sensational gold smuggling scam turning murky by every day.