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Persian Gulf Pearl in the String

Beijing has been trying to put its footprint in the Persian Gulf since 2006, and the recent uproar on the alleged deal over Kish Island suggests that the Chinese work is either progressing or becoming more visible in blue waters surrounding Iran

@Kunal_Chonkar

New Delhi: A landmark 25-year-long partnership on economic and political cooperation between Iran and China has caused much controversy and fierce debate across the globe. While much talks have surfaced and continue to emerge commenting on Tehran’s deep ‘helplessness’ for Beijing to come to its ‘rescue’, very little light has been shed on one of the controversial points in the entire document – the rumored deal of the Kish Island.

While there is no direct mention of the island in this strategic agreement, the only related reference is a paragraph which states: “Investment and development of selected islands in the fields of tourism, petrochemical industry, fisheries and. . . by China,” referring to islands which, of course, will be selected and introduced by Iran in accordance with their interests and needs. Foreign affairs experts and analysts, speaking to TheNews21 pointed that Beijing’s leadership taking a long-term perspective will likely see the ‘interests and needs’ of Tehran as opportunities for larger gains – to knot a pearl in their string stretched across the Indian Ocean.

Significant for both Beijing and Tehran

Research Associate of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, Namrata Hasija said that the Kish Island, known as the Persian Gulf pearl, holds geostrategic importance due to its location.

As part of its plans to acquire blue sea capability and meet its obligation of ensuring the security of Chinese interests, investments, and personnel in any part of the world, a continuing consideration for PLAN has been acquiring bases for its global operations. Hasija claimed that a study of July 2017 reported that China had doubled investments in acquiring overseas bases in 2016-17 to US$ 20 billion. Chinese companies have announced plans to buy or invest in nine overseas ports with discussions underway for several other ports.

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“Even though Iran has denied leasing this strategically located island to China, the growing proximity between the two is evident. With the declining Chinese relations with the West, coupled with sanctions on Iran, it is easy for Tehran to fall into Beijing’s lap to secure its economic and military development,” Hasija said.

She added that Iran joining the Belt and Road Initiative in 2016, gives Chinese firms the first refusal on opportunities to become involved with any and all Petro-chem projects in Iran, including the provision of technology, systems, process ingredients and personnel required to complete such projects. This will include up to 5,000 Chinese security personnel on the ground in Iran to protect Chinese projects, and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas, and Petro-chem supplies from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf.

“There is already Chinese security personnel in Iran which can be extended to the strategic islands even if it is not given on lease, or a proper base is built like Djibouti, the significance of Kish islands cannot be denied for Tehran or Beijing,” said the polymath on China.

Setback for India’s Roadmap

For Dr. Dattesh Parulekar, Assistant Professor in Goa University the deal is still shrouded in secrecy, beyond the broad brushstrokes of infrastructure labyrinth assurances from Beijing. He voiced that at this precise juncture, China is deep in advanced negotiations with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE for comprehensive strategic partnerships.

On the point of immediate implications, Parulekar claimed that the port of Chabahar will be directly hit because that would be China’s intent in the context of Gwadar but more so in operating the principle of ‘Denial of Strategic Maneuver’.

However, he was quick to caution against rushing the judgment on Iran conclusively pulling the plug on the port project. “That’s because the messaging out of Tehran is giving mixed signals. I would be surprised if Iran would not loathe to becoming another Pakistan in Chinese eyes by surrendering the entire nation to Beijing as if it were a condominium,” Parulekar said.

In attempts to gauge the challenges that the deal might present to New Delhi, Parulekar said that it is definitely a setback to India’s larger Eurasian connectivity projects and enterprise to build foundational ties with the CARs, going beyond soft power.

“Another worry has to be that our stakes and involvement in Afghanistan will also be undermined, possibly even jeopardized. If China as is widely surmised formally declares most if not all Iranian strategic infra projects to be BRI ones, then it effectively means that the SREB will have traversed into our plans of the INSTC,” Parulekar claimed while underscoring possible implications for SCO too.

“This could hasten Iran’s transition from observer to full member something which Beijing was lukewarm too, until date. Not much help that India can expect from Russia which is clearly the junior partner in this geographical subset,” he stressed.

Vulnerability to Western Reaches of IOR

Suggesting that New Delhi should not arrive at quick conclusions, Dr. Liyaqat Khan, Associate Professor at the University of Mumbai said that the relations between the two (Iran-India) nations are a time tested and culturally robust, with no room for suspicion.

“Iran and China are both dwelling in difficult times. They are trying to bring their trade and investment partnership together. India should not arrive at a quick conclusion and cause damage to a strong relationship. The pursuit of a closer security partnership with the West does not mean that New Delhi needs to toe the line of any superpower in its strategic relationships,” Khan remarked.

While exhorting the Indian leadership to monitor the progress in the Iran China relationship, he also brought the importance of Jask port in the picture. “This port is also strategically positioned at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz. It will be of deep concern to India and neighboring states since the western reaches of the Indian Ocean would become significant. Thus, along with Kish Island, we need eyes on this location as well,” Khan underscored.

Short-sighted Mistake, Long-term Repercussions

Holding the Indian foreign policy’s ‘short-sightedness’ responsible for allowing China to expand its influence in the neighborhood, Prof. Aftab Pasha, the former Associate Dean, Director and Chairman, SIS, JNU held the development as a ‘big loss’ for New Delhi.

“The deal is significant, and China has now forged long-term ties with a very important nation in the region. This will have great and long-term implications on the entire neighborhood especially the GCC. Beijing now has unrestricted access to Iran’s energy, markets, and transport. Beijing will use this to increase its presence in GCC,” Pasha said.

Equating the Kish Island with the Diego Garcia, and Djibouti islands, the JNU academician tracked the ‘hush-hush’ deal to be evidence of an ever-growing Chinese naval footprint in the Indian Ocean.

China-Kish Island Connection Since 2006

China has been eyeing the resource-laden Kish Island for over a decade now. Fact check done by TheNews21 showed that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had held talks with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to develop the Kish Island gas field in 2006. Though the talks were in the early stages, Beijing had sent a team of its top energy officials to hold discussions with Tehran’s leadership.

In February 2010, the NIOC joined forces with a local consortium and signed a $10 billion development contract for the massive Kish Island gas field. According to the then published media reports, the consortium was led by the Bank Mellat, which according to an EU financial intelligence unit has ‘facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign transactions for Iranian defense and energy entities’.

Exactly a decade later, in February 2020, Iranian media reported the alleged lease of Kish Islands to China as part of the 25-year partnership. A report, published in Alef.ir – a news site, quoted Hassan Norouzi, a parliamentary hardliner, announcing that he had written to President Hasan Rouhani seeking explanations on why ‘negotiations were underway by the government to hand over Kish Island to the Chinese for 25 years.‘ After complaining about Tehran’s secrecy in its past dealing with Beijing, Norouzi was quoted saying that ‘if there is any discussion about this, we will definitely stop it, and the Chinese officials should also know that such transfers will not take place.

While Norouzi’s populist rhetoric may resonate with his working-class constituents in Robat Karim, an impoverished district near Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, the parliamentary outrage is a non-factor in Iranian security and defense calculations. However, his words suggest that there is some truth behind the rumors and that Chinese work is either progressing or becoming more visible in the blue waters surrounding Iran.

Kunal Chonkar
Kunal Chonkar
Worked in the national and international news industry for over 12 years, with extensive experience covering breaking news, diplomatic reporting, conflict and natural disasters. Has specialist knowledge and experience of Asian affairs. Proven track record of working with international missions and national government in his role as a media advisor, and political strategist. He holds a post-graduate degree in International Relations, and Sociology.

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